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Viewing cable 09SOFIA264, BULGARIAN ELECTIONS: GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09SOFIA264 | 2009-06-02 08:34 | 2011-05-23 10:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Sofia |
Appears in these articles: http://www.bivol.bg/wlelectionsbg.html |
VZCZCXRO8051
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSF #0264/01 1530834
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 020834Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6035
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 000264
SIPDIS
FOR EUR/NCE ERIC GAUDIOSI, TOM YEAGER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN ELECTIONS: GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT
Classified By: Ambassador Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Bulgaria is staggering toward the finish
line of a tawdry year-long campaign that has ushered in new
lows in mudslinging and slander. Neither of the top two
contenders, Sofia Mayor Borissov and Socialist PM Stanishev,
have any chance of winning an absolute majority. The real
drama will be over their relative margins, as the smaller
parties scramble to compete as coalition partners. A grand
coalition between Borissov's GERB party and the Socialists is
now the most likely scenario, an outcome that promises
further corruption, lack of vision, and a limited lifespan.
Behind the scenes, President Parvanov is hedging his bets
with contingency planning for a "technocratic" government
that would position him and his business cronies as the
dominant players. END SUMMARY.
Two Elections, One Campaign
---------------------------
¶2. (C) The European Parliamentary campaign, officially
kicked-off on May 16, has been dominated by domestic rather
than European issues, as the parties jockey for position
before the more important July 5 national race. Corruption
and the economy have been the main themes of what is
essentially a single, year-long campaign. There has been
virtually no debate on the issues, and the campaign has
degenerated to personal attacks reaching new lows even for
Bulgaria.
¶3. (C) The result is that most voters want nothing to do
with the elections and turn-out is expected to reach historic
lows. This accrues to the direct benefit of protest parties
such as the extreme-nationalist Ataka. A low turn-out is
also likely to cause the demise of ex-King Simeon's party,
which may drop out of the national election if it fails to
get a seat in the European parliament.
The Main Contenders
-------------------
¶4. (C) THE BULGARIAN SOCIALIST PARTY (BSP): No one expects
the BSP to take first place, but it can make a strong enough
showing to bargain its way into the next government. The BSP
can claim some real achievements during the last term,
including EU accession and fiscal stability. But conflicting
interests within the coalition and within the BSP itself
paralyzed structural reform efforts, leaving a mixed
government record that eroded support for the Socialists.
Last year's high-level corruption scandals and subsequent EU
sanctions brought BSP ratings to new lows. Despite internal
quarrels, the BSP is presenting a united front for the
elections and, following the advice of its U.S. consultancy
firm Greenberg Carville Shrum (GCS), has made Borissov's
personality the key issue in their predominantly negative
campaign.
¶5. (C) CITIZENS FOR THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPMENT OF BULGARIA
(GERB): With a roughly 10-percent lead over BSP, GERB will
win the largest share of votes but not a majority and will
have to find partners to form a government. Though it calls
itself center-right and uses pro-Western rhetoric, the party
is really the one-man show of its founder and leader Boyko
Borissov, former Interior Ministry Chief Secretary and
bodyguard to Todor Zhivkov. Borissov's mixed record at the
Ministry, alleged past ties with underworld figures, and
unimpressive Sofia city management have not undermined his
popularity. His strongest weapons are his straight talk and
tough-guy personality. Campaigning on the slogan "Let's Show
that Bulgaria Can," GERB vows greater transparency in policy
making and swift actions against corruption. But lacking a
plan and a seasoned team of policy experts to implement it,
and saddled with Borissov's erratic and autocratic leadership
style, GERB will find it hard to seize the reigns of
leadership should it come to power. GERB's preferred
coalition partner would be the Blue Coalition, which could
provide badly needed experienced personnel.
Ataka and MRP: Each Other's Best Enemy
--------------------------------------
¶6. (C) MOVEMENT FOR RIGHTS AND FREEDOM (MRF): Local
analysts say Ataka and MRF need each other to frighten their
constituents into voting. The MRF enjoys solid support from
Bulgaria's ethnic Turkish minority. Its ability to
consistently deliver the ethnic Turkish vote gives it
influence disproportionate to its size, especially when
turnout is low. MRF's autocratic leader, Ahmed Dogan, is
credited with keeping ethnic peace during the transition but
now uses the party as a vehicle for money-making. The
party's alleged abuse of EU funds in MRF-controlled
SOFIA 00000264 002 OF 003
ministries are major factors in the party's negative public
image and the current government's low approval ratings. MRF
will return to parliament with roughly the same numbers,
possibly more if turnout is low. But this year it may have
to compete for its past role as kingmaker with Ataka or OLJ.
¶7. (SBU) ATAKA: The surprise success of the 2005
parliamentary elections, Ataka continues to attract
extremists from the left and right, former army and security
officers, and those embittered by the transition to a market
economy. The party's rhetoric is anti-Semitic, anti-NATO and
EU, anti-U.S., anti-government and anti-minority (ethnic
Turks and Roma). Ataka is the only party to use an EU issue
in its campaign: it is against allowing Turkey to join the
EU. High profile scandals centered on the autocratic leader
Volen Siderov have not undermined electoral support. Polling
at about 10 percent, Ataka is certain to return to the
European and national parliaments. If not acceptable as a
coalition partner, it may still play kingmaker offering
informal support to a minority government.
Lucky to Cross the Threshold
----------------------------
¶8. (SBU) THE BLUE COALITION: UDF and DSB are remnants of
the once powerful Union of Democratic Forces that led
post-communist changes in Bulgaria. Formed last March, the
Blue alliance is a last-ditch attempt to save the genuine
center-right, which has become marginalized by corruption
scandals and ego clashes, many surrounding ex-PM Ivan Kostov. The parties hope their reluctant and belated union will regain the
center-right voters who have stopped going to the polls or
defected to GERB. If they cross the parliamentary threshold,
they can hope to enter government in coalition with Mayor
Borrisov's GERB. But the center-right campaign is dogged by
a high profile legal battle over court registration. UDF
leaders blame their troubles on court manipulation by the
Socialists and hope the ongoing controversy will motivate
center-right voters to go to the polls.
¶9. (SBU) NATIONAL MOVEMENT FOR STABILITY AND PROGRESS
(NMS): The party of former King Simeon has been declining
steadily since its defeat in the 2005 election. To stay in
government the party joined the BSP as a junior partner in
the current ruling coalition, a move that further eroded its
core support. Its ratings are now below the margin of error.
¶10. (C) ORDER, LAW AND JUSTICE (OLJ): A new player on the
domestic political scene, OLJ is centered on Yane Yanev,
dubbed the clown of Bulgarian politics. Yanev rose to
prominence in recent months by outrageous media claims.
Yanev has found enough cash from unclear sources to bankroll
top flight consultants for his campaign under the motto Let's
Stop Corruption. OLJ relies on crude populist rhetoric
similar to that of GERB and Ataka. Most analysts believe
Yanev is a creation of BSP circles designed to take votes
away from GERB and Ataka. Yanev claims OLJ has 38,000
member and a national organization. But lacking Borisso's
charisma and Siderov's drive, there are alread signs his
popularity has peaked.
¶11. (C) LADER: The business party of energy oligarch
Hriso Kovachki had momentum several months ago when seeral
tiny but respectable center-right parties jined its Forward
coalition. But after a falling ut with these partners,
Leader is again alone an its polling numbers are back within
the margin f error. LEADER should not be counted out, given
its vote-buying success in last year's local elecions and
talk of a reconstituted coalition in time for the national
elections.
And If They Cannot Form a Government
------------------------------------
¶12. (C) If the parties cannot form a government there are
two options. The President may appoint a caretaker
government and schedule new elections within two months.
Most parties believe results of a second election would not
differ from the first and so would rather avoid this option.
The second option, which has been gathering increasing
attention, is a government of technocrats or well-connected
business people, a list of experts acceptable to all sides
and approved by a majority of the new parliament. Though the
parties -- via the parliament -- approve the list of
ministers, the selection process is outside normal party
procedure and not transparent, allowing more outside
influence. Bulgaria had one previous Program Government,
formed in 1992, an ineffective and highly corrupt entity
widely believed to do the bidding of a major organized crime
group. The idea of such a government is not popular with the
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public or parties, but President Parvanov and business
interests related to him are promoting the idea as a way to
increase their own influence. The parties may find it
appealing to let a technocrat government take the blame for
the effects of the world financial crisis, expected to hit
with full force later this year.
McEldowney