

Currently released so far... 12648 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
2011/05/13
2011/05/14
2011/05/15
2011/05/16
2011/05/17
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
AORC
AF
AU
ASEC
AMGT
AS
APER
AR
AG
ARF
AJ
AA
AINF
APECO
AODE
ABLD
AMG
ATPDEA
AE
AEMR
AMED
AGAO
AFIN
AL
ASUP
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AID
ASCH
AM
AORL
ASEAN
APEC
ADM
AFSI
AFSN
ADCO
ABUD
AN
AY
AIT
AGR
ACOA
ANET
ASIG
AMCHAMS
AGMT
AADP
ADPM
ATRN
ALOW
ACS
APCS
AFFAIRS
ADANA
AECL
ACAO
AORG
AROC
AO
ACABQ
AX
AMEX
AFGHANISTAN
AZ
AND
ARM
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
ACBAQ
AC
AUC
ASEX
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
AFU
BR
BTIO
BY
BO
BA
BU
BL
BN
BM
BF
BEXP
BK
BG
BB
BTIU
BBSR
BRUSSELS
BD
BIDEN
BE
BH
BILAT
BC
BX
BT
BP
BMGT
BWC
CS
CA
CH
CD
CO
CE
CU
CVIS
CASC
CJAN
CI
CPAS
CMGT
CDG
CIC
CAC
CBW
CWC
COUNTER
CW
CT
CY
CNARC
CACM
CG
CB
CM
CV
CIDA
CLINTON
CHR
COE
CR
CIS
CDC
CONS
CF
CODEL
COPUOS
CIA
CFED
CARSON
CL
CROS
CAPC
CTR
CACS
CN
CBSA
CEUDA
COM
CONDOLEEZZA
CICTE
COUNTRY
CBE
CKGR
CVR
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CLEARANCE
CARICOM
CSW
CITT
CDB
CJUS
CTM
CAN
CLMT
CBC
EAID
ECON
EFIS
ETRD
EC
ENRG
EINV
EFIN
EAGR
ETTC
ECPS
EINT
ES
EIND
EAIR
EU
EUN
EG
EPET
ELAB
EWWT
EMIN
ECIN
ESA
ER
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
EAIG
ET
ETRO
ELTN
EI
EN
EUR
EK
EUMEM
EPA
ENGR
EXTERNAL
EUREM
ELN
EUC
ENERG
ENIV
EZ
ERD
EFTA
ETRC
ETRN
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EEPET
EUNCH
ESENV
ENNP
ENVI
ETRDECONWTOCS
ECINECONCS
EFINECONCS
ELECTIONS
ENVR
EXIM
ERNG
ECA
EINVEFIN
ETC
EAP
ECONOMY
EINN
ECONOMIC
EXBS
ECUN
ENGY
ECONOMICS
EIAR
EINDETRD
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
EFIM
EAIDS
EREL
EINVETC
ECONCS
ETRA
IC
IV
IAEA
IR
IO
IT
IN
IS
IZ
IMO
IPR
IWC
ICAO
ILO
ID
ICTY
ICJ
INMARSAT
INDO
IL
IMF
IRS
IQ
IA
ICRC
IDA
IAHRC
IBRD
ISLAMISTS
IGAD
ILC
ITU
ITF
INRA
INRO
IDP
ICTR
IEFIN
IRC
ITRA
ITALY
INRB
INTELSAT
IBET
IRAQI
ISRAELI
IIP
ITPGOV
ITALIAN
INTERNAL
INTERPOL
IEA
INR
IZPREL
IRAJ
IF
ITPHUM
ISRAEL
IACI
KBTR
KPAO
KOMC
KCRM
KDEM
KHIV
KBIO
KTIA
KMDR
KNNP
KSCA
KTIP
KWMN
KIPR
KCOR
KRVC
KFRD
KPAL
KWBG
KE
KTDB
KUNR
KSPR
KJUS
KGHG
KAWC
KCFE
KGCC
KOLY
KSUM
KACT
KISL
KTFN
KFLU
KSTH
KMPI
KHDP
KS
KHLS
KMRS
KID
KN
KU
KAWK
KSAC
KCOM
KAID
KIRC
KWMNCS
KMCA
KNEI
KCRS
KPKO
KICC
KPOA
KV
KDRG
KIRF
KSEO
KVPR
KSEP
KTER
KBCT
KFIN
KGIC
KCIP
KZ
KG
KWAC
KRAD
KPRP
KTEX
KNAR
KPLS
KPAK
KSTC
KFLO
KSCI
KIDE
KOMS
KHSA
KSAF
KPWR
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFSC
KRIM
KVRP
KENV
KNSD
KCGC
KDDG
KPRV
KTBT
KWMM
KMFO
KMOC
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KPAI
KO
KVIR
KREC
KX
KR
KCRCM
KBTS
KOCI
KGIT
KNUP
KPAONZ
KNUC
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KTLA
KCSY
KTRD
KNPP
KJUST
KCMR
KRCM
KCFC
KCHG
KREL
KFTFN
KLIG
KDEMAF
KICA
KHUM
KSEC
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KWWMN
KOM
KWNM
KRFD
KMIG
KRGY
KIFR
MARR
MOPS
MASS
MX
MNUC
MCAP
MO
MR
MEPP
MTCRE
MAPP
MEPN
MZ
MT
ML
MA
MY
MIL
MD
MASSMNUC
MU
MK
MTCR
MUCN
MAS
MEDIA
MAR
MC
MI
MQADHAFI
MPOS
MTRE
MASC
MG
MARAD
MRCRE
MW
MP
MOPPS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MEPI
MEETINGS
MERCOSUR
MCC
MIK
MAPS
MV
MILITARY
MDC
NATO
NZ
NL
NO
NK
NU
NPT
NI
NG
NEW
NSF
NA
NPG
NSG
NE
NSSP
NS
NDP
NSC
NAFTA
NH
NV
NP
NPA
NSFO
NT
NW
NASA
NORAD
NATIONAL
NGO
NR
NIPP
NZUS
NC
NRR
NAR
NATOPREL
OEXC
OTRA
OPRC
OVIP
OAS
OIIP
OSCE
OREP
OPIC
OFDP
OMIG
ODIP
OVP
OSCI
OIC
OECD
OIE
OPDC
ON
OCII
OPAD
OBSP
OFFICIALS
OPCW
OHUM
OES
OCS
OTR
OSAC
OFDA
PGOV
PREL
PM
PHUM
PTER
PINR
PINS
PREF
PARM
PL
PK
PU
PBTS
PBIO
PHSA
PE
PO
PROP
PA
PNAT
POL
PLN
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PCUL
PAK
PGGV
PAO
PSA
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PAS
PGIV
PHUMPREL
PCI
PG
POGOV
PHUMPGOV
PEL
POLITICS
POLICY
PINL
PP
PREO
PAHO
PBT
PMIL
POV
PRL
PDOV
PTBS
PRAM
PREFA
PSI
PAIGH
POSTS
PALESTINIAN
PARMS
PROG
PTERE
PRGOV
PORG
PS
PGOF
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PINF
PNG
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PHUMBA
PSEPC
PNR
POLINT
PGOVE
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PGOC
PY
PHUH
PF
PHUS
RU
RS
RO
RW
RP
RFE
REGION
REACTION
REPORT
ROOD
RCMP
RM
RSO
ROBERT
RICE
RSP
RF
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
RUPREL
RELATIONS
SENV
SU
SCUL
SOCI
SNAR
SL
SW
SMIG
SP
SY
SA
SHUM
SZ
SYRIA
SF
SR
SO
SARS
SN
SC
SIPRS
SI
SYR
SEVN
SG
SPCE
SK
STEINBERG
SH
SNARCS
SAARC
SCRS
SENVKGHG
SAN
ST
SIPDIS
SNARIZ
SNARN
SSA
SPCVIS
SOFA
SEN
SANC
SWE
SHI
TW
TU
TBIO
TSPL
TPHY
TRGY
TC
TT
TSPA
TINT
TERRORISM
TX
TR
TS
TN
TD
TH
TIP
TNGD
TI
TZ
THPY
TP
TBID
TF
TL
TV
TK
TO
TRSY
TURKEY
TFIN
TAGS
UN
UK
UNSC
UNGA
US
UNESCO
UP
UNHRC
UNAUS
USTR
UNDP
UNEP
UY
UNCHR
UG
UZ
UNPUOS
USEU
UNMIK
UNDC
UNICEF
UV
UNHCR
UNCHC
UNCSD
USOAS
UNFCYP
USUN
USNC
UNIDROIT
UNO
UNCND
USPS
USAID
UE
UNVIE
UAE
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNDESCO
UNC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 08BRASILIA1215, Brazilian Concerns over Bolivian Gas Disruptions
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08BRASILIA1215.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
08BRASILIA1215 | 2008-09-11 18:44 | 2010-12-30 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia |
VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHBR #1215/01 2551844
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 111844Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2411
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 7025
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 4708
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 5762
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 4212
RUEHGE/AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN 1551
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ SEP LIMA 3920
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 7485
RUEHPO/AMEMBASSY PARAMARIBO 1619
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 2565
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0541
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 6572
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 2703
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRASILIA 001215
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018
TAGS: PREL ENRG ECON EPET EINV BR BL
SUBJECT: Brazilian Concerns over Bolivian Gas Disruptions
REFTELS: A) Sao Paulo 0260, B)Sao Paulo 0031, C) La Paz 0462, D) Brasilia 0593, E) Brasilia 0672, F) La Paz 1905 G) Sao Paulo 0392 H)La Paz 1941
Classified By: DCM Lisa Kubiske for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
¶1. (C) Summary: Calling the situation "worrisome," Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy Assistant Secretary for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Renewables, Limo Neto, shared with Econoff the breaking news that gas flow from Bolivia was decreasing, although the majority of the supply to Brazil remains unaffected thus far. Given the Brazilian dependence on Bolivian gas, a long-term disruption in supply could have serious economic consequences, particularly with respect to industrial output. Lima Neto reported that Petrobras had been contacted by the opposition actors in Bolivia to say that they had nothing against Petrobras or Brazil and, despite the threat to Morales, would try to avoid taking actions that would be damaging. Lima Neto said his next task would be to convene a group for contingency planning. According to Lima Neto, there are already draft plans in place for how to compensate for a sudden loss of gas supply, which includes using alternate fuels to power some electrical stations, for instance liquid fuels, as well as increasing production in some of the coal powered thermal plants. Brazil has weathered a disruption in gas supply as recently as October 2007 and some additional energy sources have come online since that time. Lima Neto noted that despite some existing contingency plans, a protracted disruption in the natural gas flow from Bolivia could lead to rationing. END SUMMARY
¶2. (U) According to Brazilian press reports, the Bolivian opposition is using Brazil as a pawn in a dispute with President Evo Morales and threatening the Brazilian industrial production and electrical supply in the process. Brazilian newspapers characterize the Bolivia domestic political dispute as centering around tax funds taken from the states of Santa Cruz, Beni, Tarijia, and Pando, apparently for the purposes of funding a pension system, as well as the contested constitution being proposed by a Morales-backed Congress. During the night and early morning of September 10, in what the President of the Bolivia state gas company, Santos Ramirez, is quoted in press reports as calling a "terrorist act" protesters attempted to shut off the valves, but have thus far not succeed in completely turning off the supply, despite multiple tries. Brazil is a major purchaser of Bolivian natural gas exports, which bring in between $6-9 per million BTU (Reftel F). Fifty percent of Brazil's natural gas comes from Bolivia, with 60 percent of that coming from the Tarijia province. (Note: Protesters may have believed that Morales would be particularly vulnerable to the threat of disruption of the commercial agreements with Brazil having learned how reliant Bolivia is on its Brazilian market when he nationalized Petrobras' plants in Bolivia and tried to unilaterally negotiate the contracts, resulting in a severe loss of income. End note.)
¶3. (C) The Ministry of Mines and Energy's Secretary of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Renewables, Jose Lima Neto, told Econoff that the situation was very worrisome. Given the Brazilian dependence on Bolivian gas, a disruption in supply could have serious economic consequences. Lima Neto reported that Petrobras had been contacted by the opposition actors in Bolivia to say that they had nothing against Petrobras or Brazil and, despite the threat to Morales, would try to avoid taking actions that would be damaging. Lima Neto agreed that the fact that the initial efforts to turn off the gas flow had not cut off the supply entirely could be reflective of the opposition's efforts to threaten Morales without causing undue damage to their neighbors and business partners. Lima Neto noted that any disruption would be harmful not only for Brazil but for the Bolivian economy as well, and said he hoped that fact would make the situation self-limiting.
¶4. (C) During the meeting with Econoff, at approximately 1:00 (noon Washington, DC time) September 10, Lima Neto took a call conveying the news that Brazil had just experienced a 2 million cubic meters decrease from the normal natural gas flow from Bolivia of 30 million cubic meters (Note: this coincides with reports about an explosion connecting a major Petrobras field to the pipeline in Tarijia, see Reftel H on same subject. News reports on September 11 say the flow has now decreased by three million cubic meters and suggest the decrease could last for ten to fifteen days. The situation remains fluid and Congen Sao Paulo is now hearing rumors of a fifty percent reduction in flow. End Note). He said his next task would be to convene a group for contingency planning. According to Lima Neto, there are already draft plans in place for how to compensate for a sudden loss of gas supply, which includes using alternate fuels to power some electrical stations, for instance liquid fuels, as well as increasing production in some of the coal powered thermal plants. As a result of a shortage in available gas in October of 2007, Brazil has already had an opportunity to put some of these plans into practice but Lima Neto was less than sanguine about the ability of the existing plans to compensate for a continued interruption in the gas flow. While noting that Brazil could weather a short term decrease in supply without too much economic disruption, he admitted that a more drawn out scenario could result in rationing. (Note: One mitigating factor in a potential electrical crisis could be that following an abundant rainy season, Brazil's reservoirs are better prepared to meet demand. Over 80 percent of Brazil's electrical supply comes from hydro power, with ten percent coming from natural gas. The fact the oil prices have gone down recently and that the threat comes at during the seasonal decline in energy usage might help on the electrical supply side as well.)
¶5. (C) Were the interruption in gas supply to be serious, it would be industrial output that would suffer the most. In Rio Grande do Sul, nearly 100% of industrial production requires gas and in Sao Paulo itself, the number is close to 60%. The 2007 annual survey by the Sao Paulo State Industry Center of its 551 company members conducted in November 2007 showed that more than 38 percent of natural gas consumption is used by Sao Paulo industry. The study showed that the lack of natural gas would boost production costs by about 10 percent on average. Furthermore, the Federation of Industries of Sao Paulo (FIESP) reported that an eventual natural gas shortage would totally interrupt 19 percent of Sao Paulo industries, 20 percent of industries would be partially affected with the absence of natural gas, and 61 percent could substitute another fuel for natural gas if there was a shortage. (See Reftel B for more information on natural gas in Brazil.) Several industries including chemicals (30 percent), textiles (28 percent), and ceramics (26 percent) rely heavily on natural gas as their primary energy source.
¶6. (C) COMMENT: Since Evo Morales' attempts to nationalize Petrobras' gas investments in Bolivia and dictate a contract price, Brazil has been aware of the need to move away from dependence on Bolivian gas, as well as diversify their energy matrix. For primarily political reasons, Brazilian President Lula has committed to an additional $1 billion dollars worth of gas investments in Bolivia over the next five years. It is unclear whether recent events will have an impact on future plans. Last year, Brazil launched plans to build three liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification terminals, the first of which Petrobras inaugurated in August at the Port of Pecem, which is capable of supplying 7 mm3/d of natural gas. The terminal adds another 11 percent to Brazil's natural gas supply and equals about half of the natural gas consumption destined to Brazil's gas-fired power plants and more modest increases in capacity are expected for 2009. The new discoveries of oil and gas reserves at pre-salt levels (more than 4000 meters below the surface) in the Santos Basin, provide hope for a larger increase in the long term. In the near term, Brazil will hope that the current interruption is limited and short-lived. Ample water reserves and new LNG and bioelectricity capacity (Reftel G) will help them avoid shortages in electrical supply but Brazil will need to ensure that the disruption is limited to avoid damage to industrial output. We also expect that this will provide added incentive for Brazil to continue to try to develop sources such as bioelectricity so as not to be subject to the whims of Morales and now, his opposition. END COMMENT
¶7. (U) This cable has been coordinated with U.S. Embassy La Paz, Congen Sao Paulo, and Congen Rio.
SOBEL