

Currently released so far... 12648 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
2011/05/13
2011/05/14
2011/05/15
2011/05/16
2011/05/17
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
AORC
AF
AU
ASEC
AMGT
AS
APER
AR
AG
ARF
AJ
AA
AINF
APECO
AODE
ABLD
AMG
ATPDEA
AE
AEMR
AMED
AGAO
AFIN
AL
ASUP
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AID
ASCH
AM
AORL
ASEAN
APEC
ADM
AFSI
AFSN
ADCO
ABUD
AN
AY
AIT
AGR
ACOA
ANET
ASIG
AMCHAMS
AGMT
AADP
ADPM
ATRN
ALOW
ACS
APCS
AFFAIRS
ADANA
AECL
ACAO
AORG
AROC
AO
ACABQ
AX
AMEX
AFGHANISTAN
AZ
AND
ARM
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
ACBAQ
AC
AUC
ASEX
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
AFU
BR
BTIO
BY
BO
BA
BU
BL
BN
BM
BF
BEXP
BK
BG
BB
BTIU
BBSR
BRUSSELS
BD
BIDEN
BE
BH
BILAT
BC
BX
BT
BP
BMGT
BWC
CS
CA
CH
CD
CO
CE
CU
CVIS
CASC
CJAN
CI
CPAS
CMGT
CDG
CIC
CAC
CBW
CWC
COUNTER
CW
CT
CY
CNARC
CACM
CG
CB
CM
CV
CIDA
CLINTON
CHR
COE
CR
CIS
CDC
CONS
CF
CODEL
COPUOS
CIA
CFED
CARSON
CL
CROS
CAPC
CTR
CACS
CN
CBSA
CEUDA
COM
CONDOLEEZZA
CICTE
COUNTRY
CBE
CKGR
CVR
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CLEARANCE
CARICOM
CSW
CITT
CDB
CJUS
CTM
CAN
CLMT
CBC
EAID
ECON
EFIS
ETRD
EC
ENRG
EINV
EFIN
EAGR
ETTC
ECPS
EINT
ES
EIND
EAIR
EU
EUN
EG
EPET
ELAB
EWWT
EMIN
ECIN
ESA
ER
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
EAIG
ET
ETRO
ELTN
EI
EN
EUR
EK
EUMEM
EPA
ENGR
EXTERNAL
EUREM
ELN
EUC
ENERG
ENIV
EZ
ERD
EFTA
ETRC
ETRN
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EEPET
EUNCH
ESENV
ENNP
ENVI
ETRDECONWTOCS
ECINECONCS
EFINECONCS
ELECTIONS
ENVR
EXIM
ERNG
ECA
EINVEFIN
ETC
EAP
ECONOMY
EINN
ECONOMIC
EXBS
ECUN
ENGY
ECONOMICS
EIAR
EINDETRD
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
EFIM
EAIDS
EREL
EINVETC
ECONCS
ETRA
IC
IV
IAEA
IR
IO
IT
IN
IS
IZ
IMO
IPR
IWC
ICAO
ILO
ID
ICTY
ICJ
INMARSAT
INDO
IL
IMF
IRS
IQ
IA
ICRC
IDA
IAHRC
IBRD
ISLAMISTS
IGAD
ILC
ITU
ITF
INRA
INRO
IDP
ICTR
IEFIN
IRC
ITRA
ITALY
INRB
INTELSAT
IBET
IRAQI
ISRAELI
IIP
ITPGOV
ITALIAN
INTERNAL
INTERPOL
IEA
INR
IZPREL
IRAJ
IF
ITPHUM
ISRAEL
IACI
KBTR
KPAO
KOMC
KCRM
KDEM
KHIV
KBIO
KTIA
KMDR
KNNP
KSCA
KTIP
KWMN
KIPR
KCOR
KRVC
KFRD
KPAL
KWBG
KE
KTDB
KUNR
KSPR
KJUS
KGHG
KAWC
KCFE
KGCC
KOLY
KSUM
KACT
KISL
KTFN
KFLU
KSTH
KMPI
KHDP
KS
KHLS
KMRS
KID
KN
KU
KAWK
KSAC
KCOM
KAID
KIRC
KWMNCS
KMCA
KNEI
KCRS
KPKO
KICC
KPOA
KV
KDRG
KIRF
KSEO
KVPR
KSEP
KTER
KBCT
KFIN
KGIC
KCIP
KZ
KG
KWAC
KRAD
KPRP
KTEX
KNAR
KPLS
KPAK
KSTC
KFLO
KSCI
KIDE
KOMS
KHSA
KSAF
KPWR
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFSC
KRIM
KVRP
KENV
KNSD
KCGC
KDDG
KPRV
KTBT
KWMM
KMFO
KMOC
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KPAI
KO
KVIR
KREC
KX
KR
KCRCM
KBTS
KOCI
KGIT
KNUP
KPAONZ
KNUC
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KTLA
KCSY
KTRD
KNPP
KJUST
KCMR
KRCM
KCFC
KCHG
KREL
KFTFN
KLIG
KDEMAF
KICA
KHUM
KSEC
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KWWMN
KOM
KWNM
KRFD
KMIG
KRGY
KIFR
MARR
MOPS
MASS
MX
MNUC
MCAP
MO
MR
MEPP
MTCRE
MAPP
MEPN
MZ
MT
ML
MA
MY
MIL
MD
MASSMNUC
MU
MK
MTCR
MUCN
MAS
MEDIA
MAR
MC
MI
MQADHAFI
MPOS
MTRE
MASC
MG
MARAD
MRCRE
MW
MP
MOPPS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MEPI
MEETINGS
MERCOSUR
MCC
MIK
MAPS
MV
MILITARY
MDC
NATO
NZ
NL
NO
NK
NU
NPT
NI
NG
NEW
NSF
NA
NPG
NSG
NE
NSSP
NS
NDP
NSC
NAFTA
NH
NV
NP
NPA
NSFO
NT
NW
NASA
NORAD
NATIONAL
NGO
NR
NIPP
NZUS
NC
NRR
NAR
NATOPREL
OEXC
OTRA
OPRC
OVIP
OAS
OIIP
OSCE
OREP
OPIC
OFDP
OMIG
ODIP
OVP
OSCI
OIC
OECD
OIE
OPDC
ON
OCII
OPAD
OBSP
OFFICIALS
OPCW
OHUM
OES
OCS
OTR
OSAC
OFDA
PGOV
PREL
PM
PHUM
PTER
PINR
PINS
PREF
PARM
PL
PK
PU
PBTS
PBIO
PHSA
PE
PO
PROP
PA
PNAT
POL
PLN
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PCUL
PAK
PGGV
PAO
PSA
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PAS
PGIV
PHUMPREL
PCI
PG
POGOV
PHUMPGOV
PEL
POLITICS
POLICY
PINL
PP
PREO
PAHO
PBT
PMIL
POV
PRL
PDOV
PTBS
PRAM
PREFA
PSI
PAIGH
POSTS
PALESTINIAN
PARMS
PROG
PTERE
PRGOV
PORG
PS
PGOF
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PINF
PNG
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PHUMBA
PSEPC
PNR
POLINT
PGOVE
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PGOC
PY
PHUH
PF
PHUS
RU
RS
RO
RW
RP
RFE
REGION
REACTION
REPORT
ROOD
RCMP
RM
RSO
ROBERT
RICE
RSP
RF
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
RUPREL
RELATIONS
SENV
SU
SCUL
SOCI
SNAR
SL
SW
SMIG
SP
SY
SA
SHUM
SZ
SYRIA
SF
SR
SO
SARS
SN
SC
SIPRS
SI
SYR
SEVN
SG
SPCE
SK
STEINBERG
SH
SNARCS
SAARC
SCRS
SENVKGHG
SAN
ST
SIPDIS
SNARIZ
SNARN
SSA
SPCVIS
SOFA
SEN
SANC
SWE
SHI
TW
TU
TBIO
TSPL
TPHY
TRGY
TC
TT
TSPA
TINT
TERRORISM
TX
TR
TS
TN
TD
TH
TIP
TNGD
TI
TZ
THPY
TP
TBID
TF
TL
TV
TK
TO
TRSY
TURKEY
TFIN
TAGS
UN
UK
UNSC
UNGA
US
UNESCO
UP
UNHRC
UNAUS
USTR
UNDP
UNEP
UY
UNCHR
UG
UZ
UNPUOS
USEU
UNMIK
UNDC
UNICEF
UV
UNHCR
UNCHC
UNCSD
USOAS
UNFCYP
USUN
USNC
UNIDROIT
UNO
UNCND
USPS
USAID
UE
UNVIE
UAE
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNDESCO
UNC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 08SANJOSE629, COSTA RICA COZYING UP TO CUBA?
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08SANJOSE629.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
08SANJOSE629 | 2008-07-30 19:48 | 2011-03-14 17:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy San Jose |
Appears in these articles: http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-11/Investigacion/NotasDestacadas/Investigacion2710281.aspx http://www.nacion.com/2011-03-11/Investigacion/NotaPrincipal/Investigacion2710282.aspx |
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB
DE RUEHSJ #0629/01 2121948
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 301948Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9965
INFO RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1128
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA PRIORITY 0046
C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 000629
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA, WHA/CEN AND WHA/CCA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR CS CU
SUBJECT: COSTA RICA COZYING UP TO CUBA?
REF: A. SAN JOSE 432
¶B. 06 SAN JOSE 1841
¶C. 07 SAN JOSE 1106
¶D. SAN JOSE 129
Classified By: DCM Peter M. Brennan for reason 1.4(d).
-------
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (C) The Arias administration may be contemplating
re-establishing diplomatic ties with Cuba. A vocal embargo
opponent in the legislature (a member of President Arias' own
party) seems to have Arias' ear on the issue, arguing that
normalized relations would help open Cuba to democracy.
FonMin Stagno has signaled to local diplomats that a change
is being considered. The GOCR Consul in Havana emailed a
local Cuba-watcher a month ago that ties were "getting
closer." A leading editorial writer told us July 24 that he
is convinced a change is in the wind (and overdue, in his
view).
¶2. (C) The chatter here has been sporadic but persistent: an
opening with Cuba, explained as a move to force the Castro
regime to democratize faster, might be just the sort of
sweeping international gesture Arias is looking for in the
last half of his administration. Such a move would burnish
his credentials with the international (and Costa Rican)
intellectual left; allow him to respond to critics who say he
has been too close to the U.S. during the bruising two-year
fight to ratify and implement CAFTA; and place him back on
the global stage. On the other hand, a drastic reversal in
Cuba policy might be a tough sell domestically, given Arias'
record of vocal criticism of the regime in Havana. Talk of a
Cuba gambit has quieted over the last two weeks, perhaps
because of our recent and widespread soundings on the issue,
but there is still a hum in the background. Given the Arias'
administration's penchant for dramatic, no-notice foreign
policy moves (moving the GOCR Embassy from Jerusalem to Tel
Aviv, recognizing China, establishing relations with the
Palestinian "state," etc.), if a change towards Cuba comes,
it may be sudden.
END SUMMARY.
----------------
WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
----------------
¶3. (C) There has been some political and media buzz about
possible GOCR overtures to Cuba over the last 2-3 months,
coinciding with Fidel's failing health and fade from power.
During a luncheon with Poloffs in early June, legislator
Federico Tinoco (PLN), strongly pro-US and one of the May 21
Cuban Solidarity Day speakers (Ref A), (but also strongly
anti-embargo), floated the idea of a Costa Rican opening to
Cuba. Tinoco intimated that he was shopping the idea
informally around San Jose and in the GOCR. His rationale:
1) All other countries in Latin America had relations with
Cuba and Costa Rica was a lone holdout; 2) Now that Costa
Rica had opened relations with China (to very little domestic
or international hue and cry), why not open up to Cuba?; 3)
Costa Rica already had fairly extensive informal relations
with Cuba, including some 10,000 Cubans in the country (news
to us); and 4) Costa Rica's re-establishing relations would
help further democracy in Cuba. Tinoco maintained that the
idea was more to help the Cuban people than to challenge U.S.
policy.
¶4. (C) Tinoco's musing reminded us of an earlier conversation
in May with Elaine White, former advisor to the Minister and
then Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs during the Pacheco
administration (1998-2002). She told us that during her
tenure at the MFA, GOCR foreign policy rested on three sacred
pillars: 1) recognition of Taiwan, 2) maintaining an embassy
in Jerusalem, and 3) not having ties with Cuba. White noted
that Arias and Stagno had already reversed the first two
(Refs B-C). She added that the GOCR could not use "human
rights" as the reason for distancing itself from Cuba, having
recognized the PRC despite the latter's abysmal human rights
record, and she pondered whether that would pave the way for
a return to full GOCR-Cuban diplomatic relations.
¶5. (SBU) On June 24, during an MFA overview briefing to
senior members of the diplomatic corps, Stagno answered a
point-blank question about relations with Cuba from the
Russian Ambassador by saying that the GOCR was open to talk
to the Cubans and did so from time to time, but that nothing
"formal" was in the works.
------------------------------
THE CUBA WATCHERS ARE WATCHING
------------------------------
¶6. (C) With Tinoco's and White's reasoning on our minds, and
the Cuba buzz continuing in the background, we canvassed some
contacts in and outside of government. Adriana Nunez,
Cuban-born and -exiled PLN faction press chief in the
legislature, who has had her finger on the pulse of Cuban
issues here, told us on July 15 that the GOCR Consul in
Havana, Jose Maria Penebad, visited San Jose about a month
before for medical reasons but stayed on for consultations
with the MFA. After his return to Havana, Penebad wrote
Nunez from his personal email account to tell her that ties
were "getting closer." Nunez believes the GOCR would make
such a move sooner rather than later, with the uneventful
opening to China the likely turning point in the Arias Team's
thinking. She said that President Arias had never had much
of an internal "discourse" on Cuba, except to say that he
would not re-engage with Cuba while Fidel was in power. With
Raul now in control, Arias may have an out, according to
Nunez.
¶7. (C) Nunez said that several of Arias' advisors have been
encouraging him to re-establish full ties and that the MFA
may have been deliberating doing so since late 2007. She
based this on a couple of indicators. First, after the Cuban
consul in San Jose vocally criticized Arias during last
year's CAFTA debate and October referendum, Havana replaced
the consul. Second, toward the end of last year, a group of
legislators took an official complaint they prepared
regarding a Cuban political prisoner to the MFA to forward to
Geneva. When the "denuncia" made its way
"upstairs" to the FonMin's desk, it was stopped and the MFA
said it could not get involved. Nunez took this as a sign
that the MFA did not want to be seen by Havana as
participating in the complaint. She also noted that earlier
this year the GOCR announced it was going to "shortly"
establish diplomatic relations with a Caribbean country and a
country in the Middle East. (NOTE: Aside from the quirky
recognition of the "state" of Palestine, Ref D, there have
been no new diplomatic ties established by the GOCR thus far
in 2008.)
¶8. (C) According to Nunez, Arias would most likely couch a
re-establishment of ties in terms of contributing to the
opening of Cuban democracy; showing solidarity with the other
Latin American countries; and expanding the benefits of
cultural/educational/professional exchanges. Costa Rica
already benefits from large numbers of Cuban doctors, many of
whom work in the Costa Rican national health system. Though
Arias is known for his large ego and his role as a
peace-broker, both Nunez and think-tank member Constantino
Urcuyo doubted that Arias would try to insert himself as a
mediator between the U.S. and Havana, in regards to the
embargo, for example. Urcuyo said Arias' motivation would be
something "more simple," possibly -- as Nunez and Urcuyo both
indicated -- another attempt to re-burnish his credentials
with Costa Rican leftists. (COMMENT: Urcuyo also mused on the
possible impact of the GOCR's Petrocaribe membership (septel)
on ties with Cuba. Would Chavez push San Jose closer to
Havana? END COMMENT.) Nunez believes that the GOCR will
strike quickly whenever it changes policy towards Cuba. She
bases this (with justification) on the Arias administration's
surprise announcements about the embassy in Israel and
recognition of China.
-----------------------------
BACKING OFF THE BUZZ, FOR NOW
-----------------------------
¶9. (C) The Cuba buzz has quieted recently, but has not died
altogether. In mid-July, French Ambassador Jean-Paul Monchau
told the DCM that he had asked Stagno directly about the GOCR
normalizing relations with Cuba. Stagno admitted they had
been working on it, telling Monchau that the GOCR had cooled
to the idea after the Cubans "insulted" the Europeans and
started going after dissidents again. On July 21, we asked
legislator Evita Arguedas (Independent, married to a Cuban
exile) whether she had heard anything definite about a
normalization of relations. She told us she had also heard
chatter, but nothing definitive. She did not discount the
idea, however, and stated that "where there is talk, there is
a reason."
¶10. (C) Other leading legislators including PLN faction Chief
Oscar Nunez and PUSC faction chief Lorena Vasquez told us
they have heard nothing from the Executive on changes
vis-a-vis Cuba, but both acknowledged the Arias
administration would not necessarily inform or consult the
legislature in advance, based on the China example. Both
also opined that it might be a tough sell for Arias
domestically, given the Costa Rican people's strong support
of human rights and (as Vasquez put it) general dislike for
Cubans. Ever the PLN loyalist, Oscar Nunez was confident the
Costa Rican people would follow Arias' lead in the end. "If
they trust him on anything, it is on foreign policy," he
said.
¶11. (C) On July 22, we followed up with Adriana Nunez who had
asked Rodrigo Arias, Minister of the Presidency, by email if
the GOCR was planning to re-establish ties. According to
Nunez, Arias responded that it was "within the realm of
possibilities" but he indicated that the matter had been
"paralyzed" for now due to "other problems." (COMMENT: We
assume this refers to the local scandal involving possible
unethical government use of BCIE funds, which has been
occupying a great deal of space in the local press, and
perhaps the new membership in Petrocaribe. END
COMMENT.)
¶12. (C) At the MFA, both Antonio Alarcon, Stagno's Chief of
Staff, and Alejandro Solano, Deputy Director of Foreign
Policy, had heard nothing about a prospective change in Cuba
policy. Neither could foresee relations being normalized in
the next two years, and Alarcon also noted the possible
political difficulties in selling a change in policy to the
Costa Rican public. However, recalling the way the China
decision was handled, Alarcon promised there would be "no
surprises" to the USG should the GOCR open to Cuba; the MFA
would let us know in advance.
¶13. (C) In a long, private conversation with us on July 18,
Tinoco himself seemed to have backed off. At first he did
not want to talk about the issue (convincing us that he had
indeed been pushing for relations with Cuba). He then
reprised his early arguments about Latin American solidarity,
the moderate reaction to establishing ties to China, and the
hoped-for positive Costa Rican influence on the regime.
Pushing back firmly, we noted that Cuba is not China, and
that Costa Rica is not like all other Latin American
countries: Havana would turn full Costa Rican relations into
an endorsement and a reward, long before appropriate and
sufficient democratic changes had been made. We added that
even the EU had established benchmarks for improved behavior
by the regime. We concluded that an opening to Cuba by Arias
now, with Petrocaribe in the works and following the
president's critical comments about the U.S. in Iraq and the
lack of USG assistance and attention to the region, might be
hard to explain to Washington. We also cautioned Tinoco not
to expect wholesale, immediate changes in USG Cuba policy
should a Democratic administration be elected in November.
-------
COMMENT
-------
¶14. (C) We have not heard the last word on this.
Paraphrasing legislator Evita Arguedas, where there is this
much smoke, there is probably a little fire. On July 24,
Armando Gonzalez, editorial page chief of leading daily "La
Nacion" told us that he is convinced a change remains in the
wind (and is long overdue). At an appropriate moment,
establishing full diplomatic ties with Cuba might be just the
sort of sweeping international gesture Arias seeks in the
last half of his administration, to place him back on the
world stage, burnish his leftist credentials and allow him to
show some distance from Washington. It would make more sense
for him to postpone such a significant policy
shift until after CAFTA implementation in October and the
U.S. elections in November, but he may be tempted to move
sooner.
BRENNAN