

Currently released so far... 12404 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
ASEC
AE
AF
AM
AR
AJ
AU
AORC
AG
AEMR
AMGT
APER
AGMT
AL
AFIN
AO
AMED
ADCO
AS
ABUD
ABLD
ASUP
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
APECO
AID
AND
AMBASSADOR
AN
ARM
AY
AODE
AMG
ASCH
AMCHAMS
ARF
APCS
APEC
ASEAN
AGAO
ANET
ADPM
ACOA
ACABQ
AORL
AFFAIRS
ATRN
ACS
AFSI
AFSN
ADANA
ASIG
AA
AX
AUC
AC
AECL
AADP
AGRICULTURE
AMEX
ACAO
ACBAQ
AQ
AORG
ADM
AINF
AIT
ASEX
AGR
AROC
ATFN
AFGHANISTAN
AFU
AER
ALOW
AZ
AVERY
BA
BY
BU
BR
BE
BL
BO
BK
BM
BILAT
BH
BEXP
BF
BTIO
BC
BBSR
BMGT
BTIU
BG
BWC
BB
BD
BX
BP
BRUSSELS
BN
BIDEN
BT
CW
CH
CF
CD
CV
CVIS
CM
CE
CA
CJAN
CLINTON
CIA
CU
CASC
CI
CO
CACM
CDB
CN
CMGT
CS
CG
CBW
CIS
CR
CONDOLEEZZA
CPAS
CAN
CWC
CY
COUNTER
CDG
CL
CT
CIC
CIDA
CSW
CHR
CB
CODEL
COUNTERTERRORISM
CTR
COM
CICTE
CFED
CJUS
CKGR
CBSA
CEUDA
CARSON
CONS
CITEL
CLMT
CROS
CITT
CAC
CVR
CDC
CAPC
COPUOS
CBC
CBE
CARICOM
COE
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CACS
CTM
CNARC
ECON
EFIN
ETRD
EUN
EFIS
EG
ETTC
EZ
EPET
EAID
EAGR
ENRG
ECUN
EU
ELAB
ECPS
EAIR
EINV
ELTN
EWWT
EIND
EMIN
EI
ECIN
ENVR
ELECTIONS
EINVEFIN
EN
ES
ER
EC
EUC
EINT
EINVETC
ENGR
ET
EK
ENIV
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ECONOMY
EAP
EFTA
EUR
EUMEM
EXIM
ERD
ENERG
EUREM
ESA
ERNG
EXTERNAL
EPA
EINVECONSENVCSJA
ECONOMICS
ELN
EINN
EFINECONCS
ENNP
EEPET
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ENVI
ETRO
ESENV
ECINECONCS
ECONOMIC
EAIDS
EDU
ETRA
ETRN
EFIM
EIAR
ETRC
EAIG
EXBS
EURN
ECIP
EREL
ECA
ENGY
ECONCS
ECONEFIN
ETC
ETRDECONWTOCS
EUNCH
EINDETRD
IR
IZ
IS
IAEA
INRB
IRAJ
IQ
IN
IT
IMO
INTERPOL
ICAO
IO
IC
ITALY
ITALIAN
IRAQI
ICTY
ID
IPR
IWC
ILC
INTELSAT
IL
IBRD
IMF
IA
IRC
ICRC
ILO
ITU
ITRA
IV
IDA
IAHRC
ICJ
ISRAELI
IRS
INMARSAT
ISRAEL
ISLAMISTS
INDO
IZPREL
ITPHUM
ITPGOV
ITF
IBET
IEFIN
INR
IACI
INTERNAL
IDP
IGAD
IEA
ICTR
IIP
INRA
INRO
IF
KJUS
KSCA
KNNP
KU
KCOR
KCRM
KDEM
KTFN
KHLS
KPAL
KWBG
KACT
KGHG
KPAO
KTIA
KIRF
KWMN
KS
KG
KZ
KN
KMDR
KISL
KSPR
KHIV
KPRP
KAWK
KR
KUNR
KDRG
KCIP
KGCC
KTIP
KSUM
KPKO
KVIR
KAWC
KPIN
KGIC
KRAD
KIPR
KOLY
KCFE
KMCA
KE
KV
KICC
KNPP
KBCT
KSEP
KFRD
KFLU
KVPR
KOCI
KBIO
KSTH
KMPI
KCRS
KOMC
KTBT
KPLS
KIRC
KREL
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFLO
KBTS
KSTC
KTDB
KFSC
KX
KFTFN
KNEI
KIDE
KREC
KMRS
KICA
KPAONZ
KCGC
KSAF
KRGY
KCMR
KRVC
KVRP
KSEO
KCOM
KAID
KTEX
KNUC
KNAR
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KLIG
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCRCM
KHDP
KGIT
KNSD
KOMS
KWMM
KPAI
KHSA
KTLA
KO
KMFO
KRCM
KCSY
KSAC
KTRD
KPWR
KID
KWNM
KRIM
KPOA
KCHG
KOM
KSCI
KFIN
KMOC
KESS
KWAC
KMIG
KSEC
KIFR
KDEMAF
KPRV
KBTR
KERG
KTER
KDDG
KPAK
KRFD
KHUM
KDEV
KCFC
KWWMN
KWMNCS
KJUST
MARR
MOPS
MU
MTCRE
MNUC
MY
MASS
MCAP
MOPPS
MAR
MPOS
MO
ML
MR
MASC
MX
MD
MP
MA
MTRE
MIL
MCC
MZ
MK
MDC
MRCRE
MAPS
MV
MI
MEPN
MAPP
MEETINGS
MAS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MTCR
MG
MC
MARAD
MIK
MILITARY
MEDIA
MEPI
MUCN
MEPP
MT
MERCOSUR
MW
MASSMNUC
MQADHAFI
NZ
NATO
NG
NI
NO
NATIONAL
NU
NPT
NIPP
NL
NPG
NS
NA
NGO
NP
NSG
NDP
NAFTA
NR
NC
NH
NE
NSF
NPA
NK
NSSP
NRR
NATOPREL
NSC
NT
NW
NORAD
NEW
NV
NSFO
NAR
NASA
NZUS
OTRA
OVIP
OPRC
OPDC
OSCE
OAS
ODIP
OIIP
OFDP
OVP
OREP
OFFICIALS
OSAC
OEXC
OPCW
OIE
OIC
OFDA
OSCI
OPIC
OBSP
OECD
ON
OCII
OHUM
OES
OCS
OMIG
OPAD
OTR
PGOV
PREL
PHUM
PINR
PTER
PSOE
PINS
PARM
PK
PBTS
PEPR
PM
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PREF
PBIO
PROP
PA
PSI
PINT
PO
PKFK
PL
PAK
PE
POLITICS
PINL
POL
PHSA
PU
PF
POV
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PARMS
PRGOV
PNAT
POLINT
PRAM
PMAR
PG
PAO
PROG
PRELP
PPA
PCUL
PSEPC
PSA
PREO
PAHO
PGIV
PREFA
PALESTINIAN
PAIGH
POSTS
PTBS
PGOVLO
PORG
PGOVE
PLN
PINF
PAS
PUNE
POLICY
PDEM
PDOV
PCI
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PBT
PHUMPGOV
PMIL
PNG
PP
PS
PHUH
PECON
POGOV
PY
PHUMPREL
PHUS
PRL
PGOC
PNR
PGGV
PROV
PTERE
PGOF
PHUMBA
PEL
RS
RU
RW
REGION
RP
RICE
ROBERT
RSP
RUPREL
RM
RO
RCMP
RSO
RELATIONS
REACTION
REPORT
RIGHTS
ROOD
RF
RFE
RIGHTSPOLMIL
SP
SA
SY
SF
SYR
SENV
SCUL
SOCI
SNAR
SO
SU
SG
STEINBERG
SHUM
SW
SMIG
SR
SZ
SIPRS
SI
SAARC
SPCE
SARS
SN
SYRIA
SANC
SL
SCRS
SC
SENVKGHG
SAN
SNARCS
SHI
SWE
SNARIZ
SIPDIS
SEN
SNARN
SPCVIS
SEVN
SSA
SH
SOFA
SK
ST
TPHY
TU
TRGY
TI
TX
TS
TW
TC
TFIN
TD
TSPA
TH
TT
TIP
TBIO
TSPL
TZ
TERRORISM
TRSY
TN
THPY
TINT
TF
TL
TV
TK
TO
TP
TURKEY
TNGD
TBID
TAGS
TR
UP
US
UNSC
UK
UZ
UE
UNESCO
UV
UNGA
UN
UNMIK
UNO
UY
UAE
UNEP
UG
UNHCR
UNHRC
USUN
UNAUS
USTR
USNC
USOAS
UNCHR
UNCSD
UNDP
USEU
USPS
UNDC
UNDESCO
UNCHC
UNFICYP
UNC
UNODC
UNPUOS
UNCND
UNICEF
UNCHS
UNVIE
USAID
UNIDROIT
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 05WELLINGTON719, NZ ELECTIONS: TWO-WEEK WAIT TO SEE WHO'S WON THE
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #05WELLINGTON719.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
05WELLINGTON719 | 2005-09-19 05:05 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Wellington |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000719
SIPDIS
NOFORN
STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/ANP, EAP/RSP, EAP/EP, INR/EAP
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL NZ
SUBJECT: NZ ELECTIONS: TWO-WEEK WAIT TO SEE WHO'S WON THE
BATTLE, BUT LABOUR'S ALREADY LOST THE WAR
REF: WELLINGTON 715
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David R. Burnett,
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).
¶1. (C) As predicted, New Zealand's September 17 General
Elections were the closest in years. Despite starting the
evening well ahead, the opposition National Party ended up
one Parliamentary Seat behind the Labour Government. But the
Nats refuse to concede defeat and Labour has not declared
victory, as absentee ballots totaling 10% of votes remain
uncounted. Both major parties will be courting possible
coalition partners in the two weeks before the final tally is
announced. We suspect Labour will ultimately be the party to
put together a government, but it may come at a high cost.
Both United Future and NZ First have expressed reluctance to
work with the Greens, NZ First's leader Winston Peters
remains as unpredictable as ever, and the Maori Party's sweep
of 4 of 7 Maori seats have left it strongly placed to
negotiate the terms of its participation.
¶2. (C) It's still not impossible for National to form a
government. Potential coalition partner the Act party, all
but assumed dead, has won 2 seats. There is also a chance
that the Greens will disappear during the final ballot count:
their 5.07% of the party vote is barely above the minimum
needed to stay in Parliament. If they fall below the
threshold, the Greens' share of the vote would be reallocated
among all parties, to National's advantage. The Maori Party
has also said it remains open to coalition talks with the
Nats, although we consider a final deal unlikely. Even if
National loses the election, however, in many ways it has
already won the future. The party has doubled its seats in
Parliament and taken 11 electorate seats from Labour. It has
also swept up almost all of the seats that the minor parties
have lost. Most significantly, NZ's electorate has clearly
moved to the right, a fact not lost on Labour. End Summary.
------------------
WHERE THINGS STAND
------------------
¶3. (SBU) It was -- is -- the closest of races. While
initially National appeared in the lead by a substantial
margin, in the end it received 39.63% of the party vote (49
seats), just behind Labour's 40.74% (50 seats). Labour's
party vote share remained virtually unchanged from last
election, so most of National's gain came from the small
parties. NZ First garnered just 5.8% (7 seats, down from
13), and leader Winston Peters may have lost his electorate
seat to National in a nasty, hotly contested race. United
Future got 2.72% (3 seats, down from 8), and the Greens
clocked in just above the party vote threshold at 5.07% (6
seats, down from 9). In an unexpected turn, Act Leader
Rodney Hide surprised virtually all observers (except Hide
himself) and won an electorate seat. But with just 1.52% of
the party vote, Act will have just two seats in Parliament,
down from nine. Jim Anderton's two-person Progressive Party
just got tinier -- with 1.21% of the party vote, only
Anderton will return to Parliament. The real minor party
winner was the Maori Party, which won 4 of the 7 designated
Maori seats. Because they have two electorate seats more
than they are entitled to through their party vote share,
there is now a Parliamentary "overhang." The number of total
seats will be 122 for the next three years and,
significantly, the number of seats a major party bloc needs
to hold a clear majority has increased to 62.
¶4. (SBU) On election night, a clearly shattered Helen Clark
thanked voters for making possible Labour's return to power
and said she would begin to negotiate a government. Clark
also reminded voters that she has the experience to do this.
But with 219,000 "special votes" (absentee ballots)
outstanding, the buoyant National leader Don Brash has
refused to concede. He has pledged he, too, will negotiate
with minor parties to try to form a government during the two
weeks it will take to count the special votes and recount all
the regular ballots. At this point the numbers seem against
National, although Labour will have problems in its
negotiations as well. While it is unlikely, the recount
could also change the picture dramatically.
------------------------------
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: DO THE MATH
------------------------------
¶5. (SBU) If the Greens' count holds, Labour (with the
Progressives) will have 57 seats. But for the remaining 5
seats things get harder. United Future has pledged to "talk
first" with whichever major party wins the most votes, but
leader Peter Dunne has made it very clear he will be hesitant
to join in with any government that formally includes the
Greens. NZ First leader Winston Peters similarly pledged to
support whichever major party was ahead, but on election
night he noted that, given the narrow margins separating
Labour and National, it was too early to confirm the leader.
Peters, too, has expressed reservations about the Greens. He
now has gone on leave and reportedly did not return PM
Clark's call yesterday, perhaps in payback for her failure to
call him at all in 2002. Clearly, Peters hopes to be a
kingmaker and is likely to talk with both major parties
during the two week ballot count. The Maori party is a
potential partner for Labour, but just before the election
the party softened its automatic rejection of a possible
coalition with National because of that party's opposition to
special Maori Parliament seats and bureaucracies. The Maori
now say they will talk to any party that approaches them, and
will let Maori Party constituents decide through public
meetings which government coalition to back. At the very
least, this puts the Maori Party in a much stronger position
to get what it wants in return for supporting a Labour-led
Government. The resulting deal could be very unstable, given
Clark's unwillingness to concede to Maori demands that she
backtrack on Labour's foreshore and seabed legislation.
¶6. (SBU) Because of the UF/Green issue, sources in
Parliament tell us that they believe the likely Labour
coalition would be Labour-Progressive-United Future, with the
Greens in a confidence and supply voting arrangement. This
assumes, as is rumored, that the Greens recognize there is no
other way they can be in government. This would still only
give Labour 60 votes, which it may be able to make up with
Maori party support (although as noted this will create its
own problems). However, without United Future, National can
probably do no better.
¶7. (SBU) National's only reliable coalition partner is Act,
and together the two parties have 51 seats. If NZ First were
to back down on it's pre-election pledge, or if National
squeaks ahead in the recount, that would make 58 seats. If
United Future opted out of a Labour-led coalition government,
say because the Greens insist on being in a formal coalition,
that would give National's bloc 61 seats. Brash has also
made it clear that he has not ruled out talking with the
Maori Party. Although on social issues Maori are quite
conservative, the odds of them actually backing National are
limited unless National backs down on its pledge to eliminate
the Maori seats. It's not entirely impossible, however, that
National could to find a compromise. It's worth remembering
that the Maori Party was founded in protest against Labour's
Foreshore and Seabed policy, and co-leader Turia reportedly
despises PM Clark. It would also not be necessary for the
Maori Party to back National. By simply not supporting
either major party, National would still have one more seat
than Labour.
¶8. (SBU) In reality, however, the only likely way National
could form the Government is if the Greens lost their party
vote share after the recount, and/or National's own share
increased over Labour's. The Green vote would be reallocated
to all remaining parties, and the boost to National would
enable them to form a majority with fewer minor party seats.
Labour, meanwhile, would lose it's largest sure-bet partner,
and would find it difficult to compensate. In the past two
elections, however, the Greens have picked up support (and
seats) from the special voters, a large number of whom are
students. If the same holds true this election, National is
unlikely to benefit from the Greens' loss.
------------------------------
IT'S LABOUR'S LOSS, REGARDLESS
------------------------------
¶9. (C) Even if Labour forms a Government, it has in many
respects lost this race. Just five months ago, virtually all
political analysts (including many in the National Party)
predicted a clean sweep in these elections for the
Government. As a result of National's campaign, a reelected
Labour would be badly weakened, and perhaps unable to pass
much of the legislation it would want this Parliamentary
session.
¶10. (C) PM Clark, an astute politician, must also realize
that the nature of Labour's narrow win (or loss) spells
trouble for the party's future. Many MPs close to the PM
(including Trade Minister Jim Sutton) lost their electorates
and will return to Parliament as list candidates. Others saw
their margins of victory dramatically clipped: Labour lost 10
electorates to National and Labour's margins in 29 of the 31
electorates it maintained were sharply reduced. The country
is clearly moving to the right.
¶11. (C) National, on the other hand, is on the upswing.
After 2002's dismal showing of 21%, many predicted the Nats
would soon become a minor party. Yet under Don Brash, they
have gained 11 electorate seats and almost doubled their
total seats in Parliament. In strong contrast to PM Clark
during her election-night speech, Brash appeared totally
confident. Labour's obviously weakened position is also
giving National a boost. One National candidate told us that
she and others who lost their races have been instructed not
to stand down their campaign teams. The party leadership
anticipates that even if Labour forms the Government, it's
fragile coalition will not last a full three years.
¶13. (C) As for Don Brash's future, the party he leads is
credible once more, and will be capable of mounting an
effective opposition to a decidedly weakened government. He
may actually prefer this to squeaking to a victory this time
around. Indeed, we suspect that given the tight margins and
divided electorate in this race, neither major party really
relishes the chance to take over the reins.
Burnett