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Viewing cable 06WELLINGTON133, SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GENERAL ABIZAID TO NEW
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06WELLINGTON133 | 2006-02-21 21:09 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy Wellington |
VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHWL #0133/01 0522102
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 212102Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
INFO RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2408
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000133
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/ANP
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GENERAL ABIZAID TO NEW
ZEALAND
Classified By: William McCormick, Ambassador, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d
)
¶1. (C) Mission New Zealand warmly welcomes your visit on
23-25 January. The Government has just returned from its
lengthy Christmas and summer holiday period and has real
anxiety that it is vulnerable to opposition attacks in a
number of areas, including foreign and defense policies and
the Government's less than optimal relations with Washington.
The officials you meet with will therefore be anxious to
court you, and to assure you that there are more things that
unite our countries than divide us. You are arriving in New
Zealand at a time when the government is attempting to set
aside, rather than address, recent strains in the U.S.-New
Zealand relationship in hopes of security and a bilateral
free trade agreement (FTA). NZ has stepped up cooperation in
the global response to terrorism, with contributions to
Operation Enduring Freedom, to Iraq reconstruction (while
emphasizing that its contributions are based on a "principled
position" in support of UN commitments), and to the
Proliferation Security Initiative. Although the government
remains hopeful for an FTA, New Zealand appears to have begun
to accept the message that the U.S. will not open
negotiations anytime soon. Nonetheless, a common belief
among New Zealanders is that, because of New Zealand's stance
on the Iraq war, or its anti-nuclear legislation, the U.S. is
punishing the country by refusing to engage in FTA talks.
¶2. (C) The Labour Government appears to have recovered some
public support since its near loss to the National Party in
September's general elections. PM Helen Clark remains an
extremely effective manager, even appearing for the moment to
have quashed Foreign Minister Peters' tendency to go off the
foreign policy reservation. But Labour's recovery may have
less to do with its political prowess than with the fact that
the National Party has so far failed to mount an effective
opposition. New Zealand, a former ally, desires much from
the U.S. but is not willing or able to give much in return.
Prime Minister Clark, in power since 1999, has criticized the
President and U.S. policy many times. Her political cohorts
have done the same. The periods leading to the U.S.
elections in 2004 and the New Zealand elections in September
2005 were filled with anti-U.S. rhetoric. Helen Clark, as
well as most of the politicians in New Zealand, seeks the
coveted FTA with U.S., mainly because Australia got one, and
believe that deploying troops to Afghanistan in support of
Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) warrants it on strategic
grounds.
¶3. (C) NZ Security Policy and Anti-Nuclear Legislation: New
Zealand,s anti-nuclear legislation, and its effect on
security issues, remains a key bilateral irritant. The
policy, which prohibits nuclear-armed or nuclear-powered
vessels from entering NZ waters and ports, dates from 1985
and was enshrined in legislation in 1987. The legislation
forced the United States to suspend its ANZUS defense
alliance relationship with New Zealand, which was the intent
of the Labour back-benchers pushing the legislation. After
President Bush,s September 1991 announcement that tactical
nuclear weapons would be removed from both surface vessels
and submarines, New Zealand Prime Minister James Bolger
appointed an independent commission to study the safety and
environmental aspects of nuclear-powered ships. The
commission,s report, released in December 1994 confirmed the
safety of these ships. Despite this finding, many New
Zealanders continue to support the anti-nuclear legislation,
even while hoping for warmer relations with the United
States. In the last couple of years, the Embassy has been
able to stimulate a welcome public discussion in the New
Zealand media and some political sectors on the costs to New
Zealand of this legislation.
¶4. (C) New Zealand Defense Force: The NZDF consists of
approximately 8600 active duty personnel (4400 army, 2200 air
force and 1800 navy). The Chief of Defense is Air Marshal
Bruce Ferguson, who finishes his four-year contract in
February 2006. He has been extended to 30 April 2006 to
allow the new government to solicit for and review applicants
for his position. There are a total of 22 flag or general
officers in the NZDF. There are no minimum criteria for
applying for the CDF position except that they stand in good
favor of the government. Ferguson himself was selected over
more senior candidates and was promoted from one-star to
three-star upon his appointment. Most likely to be next CDF
) current Air Force Chief, Air Vice-Marshal John Hamilton;
current Army Chief, Major General Jerry Mateparae; or Joint
Forces Commander, Major General Lou Gardiner.
- The Army combat forces include two infantry battalions,
two logistics battalions, one artillery regiment, one
engineering regiment and a Special Air Service (SAS-special
forces) group. The army has been the mainstay in the
deployments to Afghanistan with a 100 plus personnel
deployment to the Provincial Reconstruction Team in Bamyan
and a 60 plus SAS personnel deployments to Bagram. The
current SAS deployment ended November 2005 and attrition and
perstempo will prevent another SAS deployment for at least a
year. The PRT deployment is scheduled through to September
2006, but most indications from MinDef Phil Goff are that the
deployment will be extended.
- The Navy consists of two warships (Anzac class frigates),
a support-supply ship and numerous patrol and small support
vessels. There is one navy base - located in Auckland. The
navy has under contract seven new vessels being built. One
multi-role vessel designed to carry troops and equipment into
benign ports (its sister ship is a ferry in Europe). The
other six vessels under construction are a combination of
offshore patrol vessels (2) and inshore patrol vessels (4) to
monitor maritime activities in New Zealand's EEZ. The two
frigates have provided support to OEF.
- The Air Force consists of five C-130, six P-3, two B-757
and 14 Iroquois helicopters. The Clark-led government
disestablished the combat air force in 2001 putting up their
A-4 jets for sale and canceling their F-16 lease contract.
The Air Force has been relegated to a transport and maritime
patrol entity. P-3 planes have been used with good results
in Arabian waters, in support of OEF, for patrolling and EW
intercepts. The C-130s have also provided support in the
CENTCOM AOR. In 2005, the Ministry of Defense announced the
awarding of a contract to purchase NH-90 helicopters to
replace the aging Iroquois fleet. Delivery is not expected
until 2009. In addition, upgrades and life extensions are
programmed for the C-130s, P-3s and B-757s.
- Prime Minister Clark instituted a defense policy that
favors international peacekeeping, at the expense of
interoperability with U.S. forces and the ability to
contribute to regional security missions. New Zealand has
remained very active in international security and
peacekeeping. The NZDF participated in the first Gulf War
and in Operation Enduring Freedom, and contributed
peacekeepers in Cambodia, the former Yugoslavia, Somalia, and
in East Timor. More recently, New Zealand police and
military participated in the Australian-led Regional
Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI), as well as
participating in reconstruction efforts in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
¶5. (C) Iraq: New Zealand opposed Operation Iraqi Freedom on
the basis that it lacked UN sanction. In fact, PM Clark
stated there wouldn't have been an Iraq war if Al Gore had
been elected president. NZ did contribute to post-conflict
reconstruction following the passage of UNSCR 1483, in the
form of a 61-person NZDF engineering team deployed in Basra
in southern Iraq under British command from September 2003
until September 2004. New Zealand has pledged assistance of
NZ$10 million (approximately US$6.5 million), mainly through
UN agencies and the red cross but including NZ$1 million in
direct aid to help rehabilitate the Iraqi agriculture
ministry building in Baghdad. To this day, however, PM
Clark, DM Goff and other politicians still criticize the U.S.
involvement in Iraq.
¶6. (C) US-NZ Free Trade Agreement: GNZ Still Pushing:
Despite increasing recognition among GNZ officials that
negotiations with the U.S. on a free-trade deal are unlikely
to occur in the near term, leaders have continued to put an
unjustifiably positive spin on any remarks U.S. officials
have made about the chances for an agreement. The U.S. does
not rule out eventual negotiations with New Zealand but it
most likely won't be before the Trade Promotion Authority
expires for the Bush administration in 2007. An FTA would
offer U.S. producers little opportunity to expand sales in
this small market whereas New Zealand producers would have
significant opportunity to expand sales, particularly in
meat, dairy and wine. New Zealand has also expressed concern
over the US-Australia FTA disadvantaging New Zealand in that
foreign investment might be diverted to Australia in
preference over New Zealand. We have suggested that New
Zealand should look at its restrictive regulations, tax
regime and hostile attitude as reasons for foreign investment
being diverted elsewhere.
¶7. (C) Ministers: Helen Clark, Prime Minister since 1999
sidles up to the U.S. when convenient, otherwise, her
comments toward the U.S. are openly hostile in tone and
substance. The former activist university professor is the
key architect to the 1980s anti-nuclear policy and subsequent
anti-nuclear legislation. Her position, however, was
significantly weakened in the 2005 elections. The PM should
be told that a return to ANZUS is not necessarily a U.S. goal
but a less ad hoc relationship might be of interest. We do
not want to bring nuclear-powered vessels into New Zealand
but can't afford to concede policies to those who would
restrict access by legislation. We can work with an
anti-nuclear policy but not with a law that discriminates
directly against the U.S.
- Minister Goff: Defense Minister Phil Goff is a Helen
Clark loyalist and Labour Party stalwart. He makes constant
references to his two nephews serving as officers in the U.S.
Army pretending to completely understand the American point
of view but then, when convenient for political purposes,
trashes U.S. policy or decision-making. Mr. Goff is astute,
savvy and politically experienced and is not easily rattled.
Like the Prime Minister, he argues for an FTA and states that
NZ can have a frank and open dialogue with the United
States...as long as discussions don't involve the nuclear
issue.
Goff is likely to push for further relaxation of US military
restrictions on New Zealand. He will point to New Zealand's
participation with US forces in Proliferation Security
Initiative exercises as well as our joint work in Afghanistan
as proof that the current restrictions are outdated and
counterproductive. You may want to explain to Goff why our
interests elsewhere around the world prevent us from lifting
the restrictions, and why New Zealand's policies hurt these
interests. Goff is also the Minister for Trade, hence his
push for an FTA.
- Minister Peters: Foreign Minister Winston Peters is a
career politician who heads the New Zealand First Party.
Because of Labour Party's recent very narrow win in the
election, and strong gains by the National Party, Helen Clark
had to form a piecemeal government with odd bedfellows.
Winston Peters' assignment as Foreign Minister was one of the
concessions made by Helen Clark to gain his party's support.
He is Foreign Minister OUTSIDE of the Cabinet, however, which
still has many people in, and out of, New Zealand scratching
their heads. It could be a way of scapegoating Mr. Peters
should the government fail and a new election is required.
During your meeting, Peters is not likely to follow Goff's
attempts to gloss over US-NZ differences, and may emphasize
that he wants to improve bilateral relations. Although PM
Clark (and to some extent Goff) hold the real power on
foreign affairs issues, Peters is a master debater who should
not be written off. We recommend you tell him that U.S.
officials would welcome hearing his ideas on how both sides
can rebuild trust. Additionally, Mr. Peters recently stated
that he thought the U.S. didn't appreciate all the work NZ
does in the Pacific region. As Admiral Fallon noted to the
Prime Minister and Defense Minister when he was here
recently, the United States deeply appreciates the work that
New Zealand does when it comes to critical security and
stability issues in the region. Mr. Peters, unfortunately,
did not meet with ADM Fallon during the Admiral's recent
visit.
¶8. (C) Miscellaneous: PM Clark announced to the press she
was meeting you on Thursday and then her press secretary told
the press gallery to keep it under wraps for a while.
Wellington Newspaper Dominion Post published the remarks and
also said the press secretary was trying to keep it from
being published. We have sent a copy of the article to your
staff.
- The UN Report on the recommendation of closing the prisons
in Guantanamo and the re-release of Abu Ghraib prison photos
has been getting some press time in New Zealand. You will
most likely be asked about these at your media event.
- Former President Clinton will be visiting Auckland (on a
non-U.S. government trip) during your visit.
McCormick