

Currently released so far... 12404 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
ASEC
AE
AF
AM
AR
AJ
AU
AORC
AG
AEMR
AMGT
APER
AGMT
AL
AFIN
AO
AMED
ADCO
AS
ABUD
ABLD
ASUP
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
APECO
AID
AND
AMBASSADOR
AN
ARM
AY
AODE
AMG
ASCH
AMCHAMS
ARF
APCS
APEC
ASEAN
AGAO
ANET
ADPM
ACOA
ACABQ
AORL
AFFAIRS
ATRN
ACS
AFSI
AFSN
ADANA
ASIG
AA
AX
AUC
AC
AECL
AADP
AGRICULTURE
AMEX
ACAO
ACBAQ
AQ
AORG
ADM
AINF
AIT
ASEX
AGR
AROC
ATFN
AFGHANISTAN
AFU
AER
ALOW
AZ
AVERY
BA
BY
BU
BR
BE
BL
BO
BK
BM
BILAT
BH
BEXP
BF
BTIO
BC
BBSR
BMGT
BTIU
BG
BWC
BB
BD
BX
BP
BRUSSELS
BN
BIDEN
BT
CW
CH
CF
CD
CV
CVIS
CM
CE
CA
CJAN
CLINTON
CIA
CU
CASC
CI
CO
CACM
CDB
CN
CMGT
CS
CG
CBW
CIS
CR
CONDOLEEZZA
CPAS
CAN
CWC
CY
COUNTER
CDG
CL
CT
CIC
CIDA
CSW
CHR
CB
CODEL
COUNTERTERRORISM
CTR
COM
CICTE
CFED
CJUS
CKGR
CBSA
CEUDA
CARSON
CONS
CITEL
CLMT
CROS
CITT
CAC
CVR
CDC
CAPC
COPUOS
CBC
CBE
CARICOM
COE
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CACS
CTM
CNARC
ECON
EFIN
ETRD
EUN
EFIS
EG
ETTC
EZ
EPET
EAID
EAGR
ENRG
ECUN
EU
ELAB
ECPS
EAIR
EINV
ELTN
EWWT
EIND
EMIN
EI
ECIN
ENVR
ELECTIONS
EINVEFIN
EN
ES
ER
EC
EUC
EINT
EINVETC
ENGR
ET
EK
ENIV
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ECONOMY
EAP
EFTA
EUR
EUMEM
EXIM
ERD
ENERG
EUREM
ESA
ERNG
EXTERNAL
EPA
EINVECONSENVCSJA
ECONOMICS
ELN
EINN
EFINECONCS
ENNP
EEPET
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ENVI
ETRO
ESENV
ECINECONCS
ECONOMIC
EAIDS
EDU
ETRA
ETRN
EFIM
EIAR
ETRC
EAIG
EXBS
EURN
ECIP
EREL
ECA
ENGY
ECONCS
ECONEFIN
ETC
ETRDECONWTOCS
EUNCH
EINDETRD
IR
IZ
IS
IAEA
INRB
IRAJ
IQ
IN
IT
IMO
INTERPOL
ICAO
IO
IC
ITALY
ITALIAN
IRAQI
ICTY
ID
IPR
IWC
ILC
INTELSAT
IL
IBRD
IMF
IA
IRC
ICRC
ILO
ITU
ITRA
IV
IDA
IAHRC
ICJ
ISRAELI
IRS
INMARSAT
ISRAEL
ISLAMISTS
INDO
IZPREL
ITPHUM
ITPGOV
ITF
IBET
IEFIN
INR
IACI
INTERNAL
IDP
IGAD
IEA
ICTR
IIP
INRA
INRO
IF
KJUS
KSCA
KNNP
KU
KCOR
KCRM
KDEM
KTFN
KHLS
KPAL
KWBG
KACT
KGHG
KPAO
KTIA
KIRF
KWMN
KS
KG
KZ
KN
KMDR
KISL
KSPR
KHIV
KPRP
KAWK
KR
KUNR
KDRG
KCIP
KGCC
KTIP
KSUM
KPKO
KVIR
KAWC
KPIN
KGIC
KRAD
KIPR
KOLY
KCFE
KMCA
KE
KV
KICC
KNPP
KBCT
KSEP
KFRD
KFLU
KVPR
KOCI
KBIO
KSTH
KMPI
KCRS
KOMC
KTBT
KPLS
KIRC
KREL
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFLO
KBTS
KSTC
KTDB
KFSC
KX
KFTFN
KNEI
KIDE
KREC
KMRS
KICA
KPAONZ
KCGC
KSAF
KRGY
KCMR
KRVC
KVRP
KSEO
KCOM
KAID
KTEX
KNUC
KNAR
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KLIG
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCRCM
KHDP
KGIT
KNSD
KOMS
KWMM
KPAI
KHSA
KTLA
KO
KMFO
KRCM
KCSY
KSAC
KTRD
KPWR
KID
KWNM
KRIM
KPOA
KCHG
KOM
KSCI
KFIN
KMOC
KESS
KWAC
KMIG
KSEC
KIFR
KDEMAF
KPRV
KBTR
KERG
KTER
KDDG
KPAK
KRFD
KHUM
KDEV
KCFC
KWWMN
KWMNCS
KJUST
MARR
MOPS
MU
MTCRE
MNUC
MY
MASS
MCAP
MOPPS
MAR
MPOS
MO
ML
MR
MASC
MX
MD
MP
MA
MTRE
MIL
MCC
MZ
MK
MDC
MRCRE
MAPS
MV
MI
MEPN
MAPP
MEETINGS
MAS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MTCR
MG
MC
MARAD
MIK
MILITARY
MEDIA
MEPI
MUCN
MEPP
MT
MERCOSUR
MW
MASSMNUC
MQADHAFI
NZ
NATO
NG
NI
NO
NATIONAL
NU
NPT
NIPP
NL
NPG
NS
NA
NGO
NP
NSG
NDP
NAFTA
NR
NC
NH
NE
NSF
NPA
NK
NSSP
NRR
NATOPREL
NSC
NT
NW
NORAD
NEW
NV
NSFO
NAR
NASA
NZUS
OTRA
OVIP
OPRC
OPDC
OSCE
OAS
ODIP
OIIP
OFDP
OVP
OREP
OFFICIALS
OSAC
OEXC
OPCW
OIE
OIC
OFDA
OSCI
OPIC
OBSP
OECD
ON
OCII
OHUM
OES
OCS
OMIG
OPAD
OTR
PGOV
PREL
PHUM
PINR
PTER
PSOE
PINS
PARM
PK
PBTS
PEPR
PM
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PREF
PBIO
PROP
PA
PSI
PINT
PO
PKFK
PL
PAK
PE
POLITICS
PINL
POL
PHSA
PU
PF
POV
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PARMS
PRGOV
PNAT
POLINT
PRAM
PMAR
PG
PAO
PROG
PRELP
PPA
PCUL
PSEPC
PSA
PREO
PAHO
PGIV
PREFA
PALESTINIAN
PAIGH
POSTS
PTBS
PGOVLO
PORG
PGOVE
PLN
PINF
PAS
PUNE
POLICY
PDEM
PDOV
PCI
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PBT
PHUMPGOV
PMIL
PNG
PP
PS
PHUH
PECON
POGOV
PY
PHUMPREL
PHUS
PRL
PGOC
PNR
PGGV
PROV
PTERE
PGOF
PHUMBA
PEL
RS
RU
RW
REGION
RP
RICE
ROBERT
RSP
RUPREL
RM
RO
RCMP
RSO
RELATIONS
REACTION
REPORT
RIGHTS
ROOD
RF
RFE
RIGHTSPOLMIL
SP
SA
SY
SF
SYR
SENV
SCUL
SOCI
SNAR
SO
SU
SG
STEINBERG
SHUM
SW
SMIG
SR
SZ
SIPRS
SI
SAARC
SPCE
SARS
SN
SYRIA
SANC
SL
SCRS
SC
SENVKGHG
SAN
SNARCS
SHI
SWE
SNARIZ
SIPDIS
SEN
SNARN
SPCVIS
SEVN
SSA
SH
SOFA
SK
ST
TPHY
TU
TRGY
TI
TX
TS
TW
TC
TFIN
TD
TSPA
TH
TT
TIP
TBIO
TSPL
TZ
TERRORISM
TRSY
TN
THPY
TINT
TF
TL
TV
TK
TO
TP
TURKEY
TNGD
TBID
TAGS
TR
UP
US
UNSC
UK
UZ
UE
UNESCO
UV
UNGA
UN
UNMIK
UNO
UY
UAE
UNEP
UG
UNHCR
UNHRC
USUN
UNAUS
USTR
USNC
USOAS
UNCHR
UNCSD
UNDP
USEU
USPS
UNDC
UNDESCO
UNCHC
UNFICYP
UNC
UNODC
UNPUOS
UNCND
UNICEF
UNCHS
UNVIE
USAID
UNIDROIT
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 04MANAMA864, PART II: PARTING THOUGHTS ON BAHRAIN'S POLITICAL
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #04MANAMA864.
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 MANAMA 000864
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA DAS DIBBLE, NEA/ARP, NEA/PI
CAIRO FOR STEVE BONDY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2029
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KPAO KMPI BA
SUBJECT: PART II: PARTING THOUGHTS ON BAHRAIN'S POLITICAL
AND ECONOMIC SITUATION
REF: MANAMA 863
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann. Reasons 1.4 (B)(D).
This is part II of my parting reflections on Bahrain.
Reftel, Part I is the summary.
---------
Political
---------
¶1. (S) Bahraini politics remain a complicated balancing act
in a small polity. By no means is it a full democracy, but
it is going in the right direction with parliament making
real trouble and forcing real changes. If not always wise in
their actions, the deputies can scarcely be discounted as
non-entities. They are slowly developing new habits of
dialogue across sectarian lines.
¶2. (S) The second chamber, the consultative council, has
proved that it is more than a rubber stamp for the government
as was predicted. It has established its own progressive
agenda. A core of 10-15 members with professional and
governmental experience has provided balance to the
inexperienced and sometimes emotional deputies. The
consultative chamber has also developed common ties with the
deputies, which were not predicted.
¶3. (S) I believe increasingly that the two-house structure
was wise. It prevents a zero-sum game developing between the
parliament and the government. This will be all the more
necessary should the Shia opposition enter the next election
where they would win a significant number of seats.
¶4. (S) However, it is not certain that the four-party,
largely Shia rejectionist opposition will choose to enter
those elections. At this point, I think they will boycott.
Despite extensive criticism -- above all from the Shia elite
-- for having missed a significant opportunity through the
last boycott, the rejectionists remain obdurate. While they
frame their stance on legal and constitutional arguments, I
think they are really rejecting democratic participation in a
bid for immediate political power. There is no doubt that
they have chosen to fight on the ground on which they are
least likely to win; the monarchy has everything to lose from
the ultimate concession that the opposition seeks.
¶5. (S) In rejecting participation, Al-Wifaq and its allies
have forfeited potential political gains they might have
achieved from leading parliament. The rejectionists are left
with a thus far sterile strategy of mobilizing their youthful
and unemployed political base to force confrontation in hopes
that it will rally the broader community support it enjoyed
during the 90s' uprising. Confrontation has fostered a
bargaining game that could develop momentum towards the
informal dialogue democracies need to reach compromise. As
of now, the game is sterile because obtaining justice is more
important to the rejectionists than achieving practical
political goals. The absence of an off-line discussion
continues to bedevil the development of participatory
politics.
¶6. Meanwhile, Shia have broken with Al-Wifaq and voted.
Shia deputies in parliament will fight for their seats.
Others are likely to break with Al-Wifaq if it again
boycotts. These strains could cause intra-Shia violence in
¶2006.
--------
The King
--------
¶7. (S) The king has been too adroit to give the
rejectionists the crackdown that they want. Political reform
and modest economic growth have created incentives to avoid
confrontation. When confrontations occur, the king has
authorized only enough force to maintain essential order.
Violators are frequently pardoned. When I asked him, the
king admitted that he intends to avoid confrontation through
the next election.
¶8. (S) The price for this is increased lawlessness among
young people. Petty crime and attacks on the south Asian
community have risen. Although not alarming, this is making
the business community uneasy. The appointment as interior
minister of the king's close confidante and former BDF chief
of staff could herald a new effort at law and order. If so,
it will come along with recruitment of new Shia police
recruits. I would hazard a guess that these new recruits
will lead any aggressive law and order campaign in the Shia
villages. The crown prince told me that when the GOB decides
to enforce the law, it wants the community behind the police.
¶9. (S) Overall, King Hamad remains a skillful, intuitive
political leader with enormous confidence in his own
judgment. His close friends tell me that he has a strong
belief in his own tie to the Bahraini people. The king is
sometimes impetuous, but he is prepared to change course
rapidly if he finds himself in a box. He has gained enough
goodwill from his early reforms that he can ride out a good
deal of criticism, although it is true that the pace of the
early reforms led many to expect much more rapid change in
succeeding years. I think we will not see that pace again.
The king believes that a significant period is going to be
needed for the evolution of political habits in Bahrain.
¶10. (S) He has a long-term vision of equalizing power between
Sunni and Shia communities while ruling as the arbitrator
between them; ultimate power will remain his. Yet, I believe
Hamad is prepared to devolve more power to the parliament.
He has told me that he would approve a political party law
and has even encouraged some deputies to draft one. He has
not lifted a finger to protect ministers who were under
attack, perhaps even seeing this as a way of undercutting his
uncle the Prime Minister. He has allowed the parliament to
gradually force changes in pensions, social security, and
probably in press and labor laws, although these are still
being debated.
¶11. (S) The king will not cause a major rupture in the family
by removing his uncle the Prime Minister. I believe that
Hamad views such a family rift as both politically unwise and
perhaps unmannerly. But he is speedily undercutting his
uncle in significant ways. The tendering board has limited
corruption. The former housing ministry has passed to a
clean minister. The latest move in interior removes one of
the last old guard of the PM and moves the position into
Hamad's orbit. The movement is much too slow for many, but
after watching it for nearly three years, it is clear that
the power will continue to pass steadily, if somewhat
jerkily, to the king and his son Crown Prince Salman. With
power will come more political liberalization and economic
reform.
¶12. (S) Hamad's weakness is that he has no detail men around
him. In fact he is not interested in detail. His preference
is to, as he says, "find the right man and let him work the
details." The drawback is that the right man must often wait
a long time until the wrong man is removed. I suspect few
tell the king bad news but he knows this; I never found him
closing his ears so long as I told him hard truths politely
and in private.
----------------
The Crown Prince
----------------
¶13. (S) Crown Prince Salman remains his father's right-hand
man in economic reform. He lost some prestige last year when
his well-known preference for a deeper cabinet reshuffle was
beaten back by his uncle, Prime Minister Khalifa. Salman has
retrenched by focusing on economic areas where he can win.
He seems to be injecting himself more into security and
intelligence matters. If this develops it will strengthen
his base. He remains extremely popular among both Shia and
Sunni Bahrainis. For some time the crown prince will be
careful and will remain limited in the changes he can produce
on his own. He has said he will not be prime minister and
wants this role eventually to pass out of the royal family.
However, that may take some years.
-------------------------------------
Prime Minister Shaikh Khalifa bin Isa
-------------------------------------
¶14. (S) Despite real political losses, Shaikh Khalifa
remains powerful because he and his team have the experience
and knowledge to manage the day-to-day details running the
government. I believe that Shaikh Khalifa is not wholly a
negative influence. While certainly corrupt he has built
much of modern Bahrain. He is dedicated to Bahrain. But he
is a traditional Arab. His preference for old ways and old
ministers will remain a drag on the pace of reform.
-----------------------------------
A Society Growing More Conservative
-----------------------------------
¶15. (S) During my time on the island, Sunni and Shia alike
have grown more socially conservative. At the first
university graduation I attended perhaps 60 percent of the
women had head coverings; the last was in excess of 95
percent. The reasons for this are many, from backlash
against the dislocation of globalization to resentment of
drunken Saudis in the streets on the weekend. The
constituency of the Islamists is growing, increasing the
political strength of the more radical fringe elements. Some
areas, like opposition to alcohol or risque public singers,
reverberate across the Sunni/Shia divide. In other ways a
growing, but still small, radical Sunni presence intensified
the differences. Thus far, the government has approached the
Islamist current timidly. That strategy won't work forever.
My guess is that the king will follow the same path he has
with the Shia; letting the excesses build up social
irritation on which he can finally move with public support.
¶16. (S) Beyond a particular security dimension that
concerns us, the Islamists are primarily a challenge to the
future character of Bahrain. The businessmen, intellectuals,
social liberals and others who want a freer society in the
future are beginning to think about how to resist
conservative pressures. They have not yet coalesced. But
they are talking about action where last year they ran from
politics. In this, Bahrain is a small representative of a
social struggle throughout the Arab world.
----------------------------------------
Regional Situation and the U.S. Alliance
----------------------------------------
¶17. (S) Bahrain is vulnerable to tensions from the outside.
The Khobar shooting was 35 miles from Manama. The king,
prime minister and crown prince are unified in their
determination to preserve the U.S. alliance as the
cornerstone of Bahrain's external security. They know this
increases their vulnerability to criticism from pan Arab
sentiments and ever-growing resentment of our Palestinian
policies. They, and particularly King Hamad, have elected to
take a more public stance in support of key U.S. policies
than is the norm for Arab leaders, betting that this will
strengthen our ties. They deeply believe we should do more
to rebalance our Palestinian policies, but they recognize
Bahrain lacks the leverage to induce us to change.
¶18. (S) Whether by government management or popular
understanding, we have been fortunate that Bahrain's security
relationship with us has not been a major focus of public
concern. Demonstrations about U.S. policy have focused on
the Embassy and not on the naval base. Since we are not
quite sure why this is we are limited in our ability to
forecast what political events might trigger public strains.
Ultimately the alliance works because the GOB wants it and
the king and royal family will defend the relationship. But
as liberalization continues we have to be more and more
sensitive to the need to measure carefully actions that might
trigger public attacks on the security relationship. Pushing
an ICC exclusion (Article 98) in the face of Abu Ghraib is
symptomatic of ignoring our problem.
-----------
The Economy
-----------
¶19. (S) Economic problems massively underpin political
instability. The economy has advanced with both budget
surpluses and growing jobs, but unemployment, concentrated
particularly in the Shia ranks and a growing youth bulge
remain. With few natural resources, stagnant oil production,
and an expanding population, Bahrain is paying the price for
having structured an economy based on low wage, south Asian
labor rather than high productivity, better paid Bahrainis.
Economic reforms, which we support strongly, are, at best,
only a portion of what is needed to break out of this
misdirected model. Powerful members of the business
community and royal family have vested interest in the
current system. Raising the productivity level of young
Bahrainis to make economically feasible paying a living wage
is also a long-term project. Until Bahrain makes headway
with these intractable issues, unemployment will fuel the
discontent of the opposition.
¶20. (S) There is a growing divide between the very wealthy
and the very poor. This feeds the sense of frustration and
grievance. Until the economy improves there is the risk that
the frustrations will move either back into demonstrations in
the street or into political challenges through the
parliament that may not be containable by the methods used so
far.
¶21. (S) King Hamad knows this and it is driving a number of
economic decisions. The crown prince's court is engaged in
an intensive effort with labor and business to identify a way
forward. Paradoxically, the troubles in Saudi Arabia may
lead to some increase in regional service business or the
dependence of those engaged in such business moving from the
eastern province to Bahrain. By the same token, a terrorist
incident in Bahrain or rapid departure of the foreign
community could seriously imperil this state's security.
---------------------------------
What It All Means for U.S. Policy
---------------------------------
¶22. (S) Basically, we are on the right track. We continue
to publicize legitimate grievances by means of actions
ranging from the human rights report to periodic quiet
conversations that I've had with the most senior leadership
to keep them moving forward with reform. We are continually
telling the opposition that we will not save them from their
own stupidities and urging them to get in the game. This
will all come into fresh focus in the next election. Until
then, NDI, as the chosen vehicle of U.S. support for
democracy, has done a magnificent job in keeping doors open
across the political spectrum and working to develop improved
habits and practices of democracy. We must continue to fund
those efforts lavishly.
¶23. (S) We continue to see that many of the habits of
democratic practice are not established. Compromise is not
an immediate virtue. The Arab propensity to look for justice
may even be in opposition to the "half a loaf" notion of
democratic compromise. Civic society is weak. There is no
habit of going to the courts to settle political issues. We
are working on all of these fronts with our quiet MEPI-funded
programs for strengthening judicial reform, civic education,
and civic society. In doing so we have to be careful not to
become our own worst enemy. The American imprimatur is not
welcome in vast portions of the Arab world, including
Bahrain. Our desire to take credit and to put a U.S. label
on programs will often be antithetical to their success. But
success in building stability and democratic habits are our
real objectives. We have to keep that in focus when are
tempted to take short-term public credit.
¶24. (S) Bahrain is far from perfect, but it is one of the
best examples in the Arab world of economic reform. If other
societies are going to be encouraged to pay the politically
painful prices of similar reforms, they need to see success
for reform in Bahrain. By signing the FTA and validating
Bahrain's direction, we have made it in our interest as well
as Bahrain's to seek investment and job growth. Recognizing
that we cannot order the private sector to invest, we must
nevertheless do everything in our power in the next year to
encourage effective, focused business dialogues on both
sides. Absent the need to support another war, I believe
this will be the leading bilateral policy challenge of the
immediate future.
¶25. (S) Every program suffers to some extent from being
executed in a hostile, public climate. I believe we have
done as much or more than any mission our size in fighting
the media battle from placements to interviews by senior
embassy staff, to the use of speakers. I am sure this
tradition will continue, but until the media climate changes,
every other program, outside perhaps the security and
military fields, will operate with a drag. Fundamentally
this is a difference over policy not packaging. To the
extent that packaging can help, it is speakers, personal
contacts and two-way visits that preserve the fragments of
dialogue and mutual understanding that exist. My own belief
from three years in this media climate is that every dollar
of face-to-face contact is worth one hundred spent in the
electronic media that is either ignored or almost
instantaneously rejected.
¶26. (S) Despite the difference and the hostile media
climate we have come a long way in an already excellent
relationship with Bahrain. We have excellent people, both
American and local staff. They are dedicated, working often
long hours and sometimes at risk. We have stretched them
terribly with the demands of two wars and support for Iraq.
These are issues far larger than this small post, but it will
be important that this post, like many others, continue to
receive the expanding support that it has gotten over the
last three years. Our interests are growing and we must not
return to the contracting resource policies of the past.
NEUMANN