

Currently released so far... 12404 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
ASEC
AE
AF
AM
AR
AJ
AU
AORC
AG
AEMR
AMGT
APER
AGMT
AL
AFIN
AO
AMED
ADCO
AS
ABUD
ABLD
ASUP
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
APECO
AID
AND
AMBASSADOR
AN
ARM
AY
AODE
AMG
ASCH
AMCHAMS
ARF
APCS
APEC
ASEAN
AGAO
ANET
ADPM
ACOA
ACABQ
AORL
AFFAIRS
ATRN
ACS
AFSI
AFSN
ADANA
ASIG
AA
AX
AUC
AC
AECL
AADP
AGRICULTURE
AMEX
ACAO
ACBAQ
AQ
AORG
ADM
AINF
AIT
ASEX
AGR
AROC
ATFN
AFGHANISTAN
AFU
AER
ALOW
AZ
AVERY
BA
BY
BU
BR
BE
BL
BO
BK
BM
BILAT
BH
BEXP
BF
BTIO
BC
BBSR
BMGT
BTIU
BG
BWC
BB
BD
BX
BP
BRUSSELS
BN
BIDEN
BT
CW
CH
CF
CD
CV
CVIS
CM
CE
CA
CJAN
CLINTON
CIA
CU
CASC
CI
CO
CACM
CDB
CN
CMGT
CS
CG
CBW
CIS
CR
CONDOLEEZZA
CPAS
CAN
CWC
CY
COUNTER
CDG
CL
CT
CIC
CIDA
CSW
CHR
CB
CODEL
COUNTERTERRORISM
CTR
COM
CICTE
CFED
CJUS
CKGR
CBSA
CEUDA
CARSON
CONS
CITEL
CLMT
CROS
CITT
CAC
CVR
CDC
CAPC
COPUOS
CBC
CBE
CARICOM
COE
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CACS
CTM
CNARC
ECON
EFIN
ETRD
EUN
EFIS
EG
ETTC
EZ
EPET
EAID
EAGR
ENRG
ECUN
EU
ELAB
ECPS
EAIR
EINV
ELTN
EWWT
EIND
EMIN
EI
ECIN
ENVR
ELECTIONS
EINVEFIN
EN
ES
ER
EC
EUC
EINT
EINVETC
ENGR
ET
EK
ENIV
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ECONOMY
EAP
EFTA
EUR
EUMEM
EXIM
ERD
ENERG
EUREM
ESA
ERNG
EXTERNAL
EPA
EINVECONSENVCSJA
ECONOMICS
ELN
EINN
EFINECONCS
ENNP
EEPET
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ENVI
ETRO
ESENV
ECINECONCS
ECONOMIC
EAIDS
EDU
ETRA
ETRN
EFIM
EIAR
ETRC
EAIG
EXBS
EURN
ECIP
EREL
ECA
ENGY
ECONCS
ECONEFIN
ETC
ETRDECONWTOCS
EUNCH
EINDETRD
IR
IZ
IS
IAEA
INRB
IRAJ
IQ
IN
IT
IMO
INTERPOL
ICAO
IO
IC
ITALY
ITALIAN
IRAQI
ICTY
ID
IPR
IWC
ILC
INTELSAT
IL
IBRD
IMF
IA
IRC
ICRC
ILO
ITU
ITRA
IV
IDA
IAHRC
ICJ
ISRAELI
IRS
INMARSAT
ISRAEL
ISLAMISTS
INDO
IZPREL
ITPHUM
ITPGOV
ITF
IBET
IEFIN
INR
IACI
INTERNAL
IDP
IGAD
IEA
ICTR
IIP
INRA
INRO
IF
KJUS
KSCA
KNNP
KU
KCOR
KCRM
KDEM
KTFN
KHLS
KPAL
KWBG
KACT
KGHG
KPAO
KTIA
KIRF
KWMN
KS
KG
KZ
KN
KMDR
KISL
KSPR
KHIV
KPRP
KAWK
KR
KUNR
KDRG
KCIP
KGCC
KTIP
KSUM
KPKO
KVIR
KAWC
KPIN
KGIC
KRAD
KIPR
KOLY
KCFE
KMCA
KE
KV
KICC
KNPP
KBCT
KSEP
KFRD
KFLU
KVPR
KOCI
KBIO
KSTH
KMPI
KCRS
KOMC
KTBT
KPLS
KIRC
KREL
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFLO
KBTS
KSTC
KTDB
KFSC
KX
KFTFN
KNEI
KIDE
KREC
KMRS
KICA
KPAONZ
KCGC
KSAF
KRGY
KCMR
KRVC
KVRP
KSEO
KCOM
KAID
KTEX
KNUC
KNAR
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KLIG
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCRCM
KHDP
KGIT
KNSD
KOMS
KWMM
KPAI
KHSA
KTLA
KO
KMFO
KRCM
KCSY
KSAC
KTRD
KPWR
KID
KWNM
KRIM
KPOA
KCHG
KOM
KSCI
KFIN
KMOC
KESS
KWAC
KMIG
KSEC
KIFR
KDEMAF
KPRV
KBTR
KERG
KTER
KDDG
KPAK
KRFD
KHUM
KDEV
KCFC
KWWMN
KWMNCS
KJUST
MARR
MOPS
MU
MTCRE
MNUC
MY
MASS
MCAP
MOPPS
MAR
MPOS
MO
ML
MR
MASC
MX
MD
MP
MA
MTRE
MIL
MCC
MZ
MK
MDC
MRCRE
MAPS
MV
MI
MEPN
MAPP
MEETINGS
MAS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MTCR
MG
MC
MARAD
MIK
MILITARY
MEDIA
MEPI
MUCN
MEPP
MT
MERCOSUR
MW
MASSMNUC
MQADHAFI
NZ
NATO
NG
NI
NO
NATIONAL
NU
NPT
NIPP
NL
NPG
NS
NA
NGO
NP
NSG
NDP
NAFTA
NR
NC
NH
NE
NSF
NPA
NK
NSSP
NRR
NATOPREL
NSC
NT
NW
NORAD
NEW
NV
NSFO
NAR
NASA
NZUS
OTRA
OVIP
OPRC
OPDC
OSCE
OAS
ODIP
OIIP
OFDP
OVP
OREP
OFFICIALS
OSAC
OEXC
OPCW
OIE
OIC
OFDA
OSCI
OPIC
OBSP
OECD
ON
OCII
OHUM
OES
OCS
OMIG
OPAD
OTR
PGOV
PREL
PHUM
PINR
PTER
PSOE
PINS
PARM
PK
PBTS
PEPR
PM
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PREF
PBIO
PROP
PA
PSI
PINT
PO
PKFK
PL
PAK
PE
POLITICS
PINL
POL
PHSA
PU
PF
POV
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PARMS
PRGOV
PNAT
POLINT
PRAM
PMAR
PG
PAO
PROG
PRELP
PPA
PCUL
PSEPC
PSA
PREO
PAHO
PGIV
PREFA
PALESTINIAN
PAIGH
POSTS
PTBS
PGOVLO
PORG
PGOVE
PLN
PINF
PAS
PUNE
POLICY
PDEM
PDOV
PCI
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PBT
PHUMPGOV
PMIL
PNG
PP
PS
PHUH
PECON
POGOV
PY
PHUMPREL
PHUS
PRL
PGOC
PNR
PGGV
PROV
PTERE
PGOF
PHUMBA
PEL
RS
RU
RW
REGION
RP
RICE
ROBERT
RSP
RUPREL
RM
RO
RCMP
RSO
RELATIONS
REACTION
REPORT
RIGHTS
ROOD
RF
RFE
RIGHTSPOLMIL
SP
SA
SY
SF
SYR
SENV
SCUL
SOCI
SNAR
SO
SU
SG
STEINBERG
SHUM
SW
SMIG
SR
SZ
SIPRS
SI
SAARC
SPCE
SARS
SN
SYRIA
SANC
SL
SCRS
SC
SENVKGHG
SAN
SNARCS
SHI
SWE
SNARIZ
SIPDIS
SEN
SNARN
SPCVIS
SEVN
SSA
SH
SOFA
SK
ST
TPHY
TU
TRGY
TI
TX
TS
TW
TC
TFIN
TD
TSPA
TH
TT
TIP
TBIO
TSPL
TZ
TERRORISM
TRSY
TN
THPY
TINT
TF
TL
TV
TK
TO
TP
TURKEY
TNGD
TBID
TAGS
TR
UP
US
UNSC
UK
UZ
UE
UNESCO
UV
UNGA
UN
UNMIK
UNO
UY
UAE
UNEP
UG
UNHCR
UNHRC
USUN
UNAUS
USTR
USNC
USOAS
UNCHR
UNCSD
UNDP
USEU
USPS
UNDC
UNDESCO
UNCHC
UNFICYP
UNC
UNODC
UNPUOS
UNCND
UNICEF
UNCHS
UNVIE
USAID
UNIDROIT
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 09HAVANA221, THE U.S. AND THE ROLE OF THE OPPOSITION IN CUBA
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09HAVANA221.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09HAVANA221 | 2009-04-15 13:01 | 2010-12-17 22:10 | CONFIDENTIAL | US Interests Section Havana |
VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB
DE RUEHUB #0221/01 1051333
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151333Z APR 09
FM USINT HAVANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4310
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/COGARD INTELCOORDCEN WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/NAVINTELOFC GUANTANAMO BAY CU
CLASSIFICATION: CONFIDENTIAL
MISC:
DESTINATION: VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB
DE RUEHUB #0221/01 1051333
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151333Z APR 09
FM USINT HAVANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4310
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/COGARD INTELCOORDCEN WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/NAVINTELOFC GUANTANAMO BAY CU
C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000221
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PHUM CU
SUBJECT: THE U.S. AND THE ROLE OF THE OPPOSITION IN CUBA
Classified By: COM Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: As the Raul Castro government of Cuba
(GOC) appears to have settled into a position of undisputed
authority internally, it is worth asking what the Cuban
political opposition is doing and the role it may play in the
future. Two recent op-ed pieces in the international press
that have infuriated dissident leaders argue that the answers
are: not much and none. Though the op-ed pieces do not
mention it, this assessment should carry the caveat that part
of the reason for the relative inaction of the opposition is
that the GOC is taking active steps to undermine it. Many
opposition groups are prone to dominance by individuals with
strong egos who do not work well together and are therefore
easy targets for manipulation by the Cuban security services.
The Agenda para la Transicion, which was launched with much
promise one year ago, is on the verge of breaking apart.
Oswaldo Paya's Dialogo Nacional has picked up some stray
dissidents, but has not taken any significant action in
months. Though dissidents have reacted very negatively to
the articles in the international press, the fact is that
they contain more than a grain of truth and it would have
been better if the criticism had been taken as a wake-up call.
¶2. (C) Without some true epiphany among the opposition
leadership and a lessening in official repression of its
activities, the traditional dissident movement is not likely
to supplant the Cuban government. The dissidents have, and
will continue to perform, a key role in acting as the
conscience of Cuba and deserve our support in that role. But
we will need to look elsewhere, including within the
government itself, to spot the most likely successors to the
Castro regime. End Summary.
Public Criticism Touches a Nerve in the Dissident Community
--------------------------------------------- --------------
¶3. (C) Two recent op-ed pieces that ran in the Miami press,
one by Ivette Leyva Martinez entitled "the Wall of
Dissidence," and the other by Fernando Ravsberg entitled
"Cuba, the Dissidents and the World," argued that the
dissident movement in Cuba has become as old and as out of
touch with the lives of ordinary Cubans as the regime itself.
The articles represented comprehensive and fairly balanced
critiques of the dissident movement, and appeared at a time
when the dissidents are under more pressure than ever from
the Cuban government. As such, they might have generated a
reform debate among the dissident leaders, but instead they
simply focused dissident frustration with the Cuban exile
community.
¶4. (C) In general, we would make the same criticisms of most
of the official dissident movement that we have contact with
in Havana. In fairness to the dissidents we would add--as
the op-ed pieces did not--that being an anti-GOC activist in
Cuba is enormously difficult, and that any effort to move
beyond small meetings in private homes would almost certainly
be quickly and firmly repressed by the security services.
That said, we see very little evidence that the mainline
dissident organizations have much resonance among ordinary
Cubans. Informal polls we have carried out among visa and
refugee applicants have shown virtually no awareness of
dissident personalities or agendas. Judging from the
reactions we have heard from our dissident contacts, the most
painful accusation made by the commentators was that the
dissidents are old and out of touch. Many of the leaders of
the dissident movement are indeed comparatively old.
Long-time dissidents like Martha Beatriz Roque, Vladimiro
Roca, Felix Bonne, Roberto de Miranda, Oscar Espinosa Chepe,
Elizardo Sanchez and Hector Palacios are in their 60s.
Others such as Francisco Chaviano and wife Ana Aguililla,
Rene Gomez Manzano and Oswaldo Paya are well into their 50s.
They have little contact with younger Cubans and, to the
extent they have a message that is getting out, it does not
appeal to that segment of society. Their very valid focus on
the plight of friends and relatives being held as prisoners
of conscience, and on the government's failure to uphold
basic human rights, does not address the interests of Cubans
who are more concerned about having greater opportunities to
travel freely and live comfortably.
Dissident Movement Not a Coherent Whole
---------------------------------------
¶5. (C) Whether or not the opposition organizations have
agendas that can be made to appeal to a broad range of
interests on the island, they must first begin to achieve
some level of unity of purpose as an opposition, or at least
stop spending so much energy trying to undercut one another.
Despite claims that they represent "thousands of Cubans," we
see little evidence of such support, at least from the
admittedly limited vantage point we have in Havana. When we
question opposition leaders about their programs, we do not
see platforms designed to appeal to a broad cross section of
Cuban society. Rather, the greatest effort is directed at
obtaining enough resources to keep the principal organizers
and their key supporters living from day to day. One
political party organization told the COM quite openly and
frankly that it needed resources to pay salaries and
presented him with a budget in the hope that USINT would be
able to cover it. With seeking resources as a primary
concern, the next most important pursuit seems to be to limit
or marginalize the activities of erstwhile allies, thus
preserving power and access to scarce resources.
¶6. (C) Younger individuals, including bloggers, musicians,
and performing and plastic artists do not belong to
identifiable organizations, though they are much better at
taking "rebellious" stands with greater popular appeal.
However, these individuals are still tightly controlled by
the GOC, eschew the label of "dissident," and do not seem to
aspire to any leadership role. The international fame gained
by a few, such has blogger Yoanny Sanchez, fuels further
jealousy among the traditional dissident organizations and
prevents them from working with the incipient networks that
the younger generations are beginning to form.
Internal Divisions and Limited View Hamper Activity
--------------------------------------------- ------
¶7. (C) The current feud among the leadership of the Agenda
para la Transicion is a case in point. When the organization
was founded one year ago, it was ground breaking in that it
brought together an unusually broad array of dissidents. The
only significant groups missing were those of Oswaldo Paya,
who was invited to join but refused, and the Arco Progresista
led by Manuel Cuesta Morua, a group that is considered by
other dissidents to be a "tame" opposition organization that
is controlled by the GOC. However, after only a year in
which its signal accomplishment was presenting a prize to a
young graphic artist for designing a logo for the
organization, the Agenda para la Transicion seems close to
flying apart. The crux of the dispute appears to be a power
struggle between Hector Palacios and several followers on one
side and Martha Beatriz Roque and Vladimiro Roca and some of
their followers on the other. But the main problem lies in
the fact that, while the concept of unifying the opposition
under one umbrella organization has a great deal of merit,
the members have not been able to overcome the challenge of
keeping several very strong and uncompromising personalities
working together. The splits that would be natural among the
members of such a group are aggravated by active measures
being taken by Cuban state security, which works to coopt
certain members and infiltrate the organization with its own
agents whose job it is to stoke any discord that exists.
¶8. (C) Oswaldo Paya and his supporters, who now include
former Agenda member and lawyer Rene Gomez Manzano and
dissident economist Oscar Espinosa Chepe, continue to be a
very sober and serious force. Paya has outlined great plans
to organize his "National Dialogue" in the same way he did
the Varela Project in the late 1990s with grassroots support
throughout the island, but there is little activity apparent.
The fact that 41 of the 54 prisoners of conscience arrested
in the Black Spring of 2003 and still being held are Varela
Project volunteers clearly weighs heavily on Paya.
Therefore, much of his focus has been on defense of human
rights and demands for the release of political prisoners.
While these are laudable goals that must be pressed forward,
as noted above, they have little resonance within Cuban
society and do not offer a political alternative to the
government of Cuba.
Incipient Political Parties in Cuba
-----------------------------------
¶9. (C) The COM met on March 31 with the leaders of several
self-professed political parties, most of them in some way
claiming to be a successor to the old Cuban Liberal Party.
These individuals at least claim to have political
objectives. Each of the groups presented a platform, all of
which were very similar. But they were also quite
impressive, attacking tough issues like constitutional
reform, the status of the armed forces and security forces,
and domestic and international economic policy. However,
when the COM asked representatives of each group to explain
how they would appeal to the Cuban public at large if there
were open national elections tomorrow, none had a good
answer, and it was apparent that they had not given a great
deal of thought to that possibility. The groups expressed
their thanks to USINT for bringing them together in such a
forum, and seemed prepared to contemplate the function of
grassroots politics in their planning. There is as yet no
indication that there is any general movement in that
direction, however.
Relations with the Exile Community
----------------------------------
¶10. (C) A consistent problem, and one that is becoming more
acute as the eventual end of the Castro brothers' regime
comes into sight, is the relationship between the on-island
opposition and the exile community. Even though much of
their resources continues to come from exile groups,
opposition members of all stripes complain that the intention
of the exiles is to undercut local opposition groups so that
they can move into power when the Castros leave. The
islanders accuse Miami and Madrid-based exiles of trying to
orchestrate their activities from afar, and of
misrepresenting their views to policy makers in Washington.
Ironically, the "exile community" in many cases includes
former dissidents who only just recently were able to get off
the island. Their closeness to the remaining dissidents on
the island does not appear to keep them in the latter's good
graces. Instead, they are almost immediately lumped into the
"them" that defines the exile community for the on-island
opposition.
COMMENT
-------
¶11. (C) COMMENT: Various dissident leaders have maintained
their focus on specific issues like treatment of political
prisoners, and such work is valuable and worthwhile. This is
especially true of groups like the Damas de Blanco, whose
very narrow focus on the plight of their imprisoned family
members has made it one of the most effective organizations
on the island. It is the dissident movement that holds the
GOC accountable for its violations of basic human and civil
rights. From our standpoint, however, there are few if any
dissidents who have a political vision that could be applied
to future governance. Though the dissidents will not
acknowledge it, they are not widely known in Cuba outside the
foreign diplomatic and press corps. A key factor that
contributes to this is the GOC's focused effort to keep
dissidents divided and unable to reach out to ordinary
Cubans. We have no doubt that, as alleged, the dissident
movement is heavily penetrated by state security. This
penetration allows the government to play on the egos and
personal feuds that are normal in any society, and exacerbate
the divisions that would exist naturally among the
dissidents. Unless the GOC relaxes its suppression of
opposition organizations, and the dissidents themselves
become more capable of cooperative behavior, it is unlikely
that they will play any significant role in whatever
government succeeds the Castro brothers. Nevertheless, we
should continue to support the good work being done by the
dissident movement in promoting observation of
internationally recognized human rights and making public the
plight of political prisoners.
¶12. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: We believe it is the younger
generation of "non-traditional dissidents," XXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXX that is likely to have a greater long term impact on
post-Castro Cuba. However, the most likely immediate
successors to the Castro regime will probably come from
within the middle ranks of the government itself. We do not
know yet who might eventually rise to leadership positions in
place of the old guard from within the government. The recent
purge of younger officials like former Vice President Lage
and former Foreign Minister Perez Roque must have given pause
to any in that cadre who had considered thinking out loud
about the future. Still, we believe we must try to expand
ou contacts within Cuban society on leadership and democracy
initiatives as broadly as possible. We also must continue to
open up Cuba to the information age through measures such as
those announced on April 13, to facilitate and encourage the
younger generations of Cubans seeking greater freedom and
opportunity. End Comment
FARRAR