

Currently released so far... 12404 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
ASEC
AE
AF
AM
AR
AJ
AU
AORC
AG
AEMR
AMGT
APER
AGMT
AL
AFIN
AO
AMED
ADCO
AS
ABUD
ABLD
ASUP
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
APECO
AID
AND
AMBASSADOR
AN
ARM
AY
AODE
AMG
ASCH
AMCHAMS
ARF
APCS
APEC
ASEAN
AGAO
ANET
ADPM
ACOA
ACABQ
AORL
AFFAIRS
ATRN
ACS
AFSI
AFSN
ADANA
ASIG
AA
AX
AUC
AC
AECL
AADP
AGRICULTURE
AMEX
ACAO
ACBAQ
AQ
AORG
ADM
AINF
AIT
ASEX
AGR
AROC
ATFN
AFGHANISTAN
AFU
AER
ALOW
AZ
AVERY
BA
BY
BU
BR
BE
BL
BO
BK
BM
BILAT
BH
BEXP
BF
BTIO
BC
BBSR
BMGT
BTIU
BG
BWC
BB
BD
BX
BP
BRUSSELS
BN
BIDEN
BT
CW
CH
CF
CD
CV
CVIS
CM
CE
CA
CJAN
CLINTON
CIA
CU
CASC
CI
CO
CACM
CDB
CN
CMGT
CS
CG
CBW
CIS
CR
CONDOLEEZZA
CPAS
CAN
CWC
CY
COUNTER
CDG
CL
CT
CIC
CIDA
CSW
CHR
CB
CODEL
COUNTERTERRORISM
CTR
COM
CICTE
CFED
CJUS
CKGR
CBSA
CEUDA
CARSON
CONS
CITEL
CLMT
CROS
CITT
CAC
CVR
CDC
CAPC
COPUOS
CBC
CBE
CARICOM
COE
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CACS
CTM
CNARC
ECON
EFIN
ETRD
EUN
EFIS
EG
ETTC
EZ
EPET
EAID
EAGR
ENRG
ECUN
EU
ELAB
ECPS
EAIR
EINV
ELTN
EWWT
EIND
EMIN
EI
ECIN
ENVR
ELECTIONS
EINVEFIN
EN
ES
ER
EC
EUC
EINT
EINVETC
ENGR
ET
EK
ENIV
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ECONOMY
EAP
EFTA
EUR
EUMEM
EXIM
ERD
ENERG
EUREM
ESA
ERNG
EXTERNAL
EPA
EINVECONSENVCSJA
ECONOMICS
ELN
EINN
EFINECONCS
ENNP
EEPET
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ENVI
ETRO
ESENV
ECINECONCS
ECONOMIC
EAIDS
EDU
ETRA
ETRN
EFIM
EIAR
ETRC
EAIG
EXBS
EURN
ECIP
EREL
ECA
ENGY
ECONCS
ECONEFIN
ETC
ETRDECONWTOCS
EUNCH
EINDETRD
IR
IZ
IS
IAEA
INRB
IRAJ
IQ
IN
IT
IMO
INTERPOL
ICAO
IO
IC
ITALY
ITALIAN
IRAQI
ICTY
ID
IPR
IWC
ILC
INTELSAT
IL
IBRD
IMF
IA
IRC
ICRC
ILO
ITU
ITRA
IV
IDA
IAHRC
ICJ
ISRAELI
IRS
INMARSAT
ISRAEL
ISLAMISTS
INDO
IZPREL
ITPHUM
ITPGOV
ITF
IBET
IEFIN
INR
IACI
INTERNAL
IDP
IGAD
IEA
ICTR
IIP
INRA
INRO
IF
KJUS
KSCA
KNNP
KU
KCOR
KCRM
KDEM
KTFN
KHLS
KPAL
KWBG
KACT
KGHG
KPAO
KTIA
KIRF
KWMN
KS
KG
KZ
KN
KMDR
KISL
KSPR
KHIV
KPRP
KAWK
KR
KUNR
KDRG
KCIP
KGCC
KTIP
KSUM
KPKO
KVIR
KAWC
KPIN
KGIC
KRAD
KIPR
KOLY
KCFE
KMCA
KE
KV
KICC
KNPP
KBCT
KSEP
KFRD
KFLU
KVPR
KOCI
KBIO
KSTH
KMPI
KCRS
KOMC
KTBT
KPLS
KIRC
KREL
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFLO
KBTS
KSTC
KTDB
KFSC
KX
KFTFN
KNEI
KIDE
KREC
KMRS
KICA
KPAONZ
KCGC
KSAF
KRGY
KCMR
KRVC
KVRP
KSEO
KCOM
KAID
KTEX
KNUC
KNAR
KNUP
KNNPMNUC
KLIG
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCRCM
KHDP
KGIT
KNSD
KOMS
KWMM
KPAI
KHSA
KTLA
KO
KMFO
KRCM
KCSY
KSAC
KTRD
KPWR
KID
KWNM
KRIM
KPOA
KCHG
KOM
KSCI
KFIN
KMOC
KESS
KWAC
KMIG
KSEC
KIFR
KDEMAF
KPRV
KBTR
KERG
KTER
KDDG
KPAK
KRFD
KHUM
KDEV
KCFC
KWWMN
KWMNCS
KJUST
MARR
MOPS
MU
MTCRE
MNUC
MY
MASS
MCAP
MOPPS
MAR
MPOS
MO
ML
MR
MASC
MX
MD
MP
MA
MTRE
MIL
MCC
MZ
MK
MDC
MRCRE
MAPS
MV
MI
MEPN
MAPP
MEETINGS
MAS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MTCR
MG
MC
MARAD
MIK
MILITARY
MEDIA
MEPI
MUCN
MEPP
MT
MERCOSUR
MW
MASSMNUC
MQADHAFI
NZ
NATO
NG
NI
NO
NATIONAL
NU
NPT
NIPP
NL
NPG
NS
NA
NGO
NP
NSG
NDP
NAFTA
NR
NC
NH
NE
NSF
NPA
NK
NSSP
NRR
NATOPREL
NSC
NT
NW
NORAD
NEW
NV
NSFO
NAR
NASA
NZUS
OTRA
OVIP
OPRC
OPDC
OSCE
OAS
ODIP
OIIP
OFDP
OVP
OREP
OFFICIALS
OSAC
OEXC
OPCW
OIE
OIC
OFDA
OSCI
OPIC
OBSP
OECD
ON
OCII
OHUM
OES
OCS
OMIG
OPAD
OTR
PGOV
PREL
PHUM
PINR
PTER
PSOE
PINS
PARM
PK
PBTS
PEPR
PM
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PREF
PBIO
PROP
PA
PSI
PINT
PO
PKFK
PL
PAK
PE
POLITICS
PINL
POL
PHSA
PU
PF
POV
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PARMS
PRGOV
PNAT
POLINT
PRAM
PMAR
PG
PAO
PROG
PRELP
PPA
PCUL
PSEPC
PSA
PREO
PAHO
PGIV
PREFA
PALESTINIAN
PAIGH
POSTS
PTBS
PGOVLO
PORG
PGOVE
PLN
PINF
PAS
PUNE
POLICY
PDEM
PDOV
PCI
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PBT
PHUMPGOV
PMIL
PNG
PP
PS
PHUH
PECON
POGOV
PY
PHUMPREL
PHUS
PRL
PGOC
PNR
PGGV
PROV
PTERE
PGOF
PHUMBA
PEL
RS
RU
RW
REGION
RP
RICE
ROBERT
RSP
RUPREL
RM
RO
RCMP
RSO
RELATIONS
REACTION
REPORT
RIGHTS
ROOD
RF
RFE
RIGHTSPOLMIL
SP
SA
SY
SF
SYR
SENV
SCUL
SOCI
SNAR
SO
SU
SG
STEINBERG
SHUM
SW
SMIG
SR
SZ
SIPRS
SI
SAARC
SPCE
SARS
SN
SYRIA
SANC
SL
SCRS
SC
SENVKGHG
SAN
SNARCS
SHI
SWE
SNARIZ
SIPDIS
SEN
SNARN
SPCVIS
SEVN
SSA
SH
SOFA
SK
ST
TPHY
TU
TRGY
TI
TX
TS
TW
TC
TFIN
TD
TSPA
TH
TT
TIP
TBIO
TSPL
TZ
TERRORISM
TRSY
TN
THPY
TINT
TF
TL
TV
TK
TO
TP
TURKEY
TNGD
TBID
TAGS
TR
UP
US
UNSC
UK
UZ
UE
UNESCO
UV
UNGA
UN
UNMIK
UNO
UY
UAE
UNEP
UG
UNHCR
UNHRC
USUN
UNAUS
USTR
USNC
USOAS
UNCHR
UNCSD
UNDP
USEU
USPS
UNDC
UNDESCO
UNCHC
UNFICYP
UNC
UNODC
UNPUOS
UNCND
UNICEF
UNCHS
UNVIE
USAID
UNIDROIT
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 04HALIFAX101, ATLANTIC CANADA: PRE-ELECTION SOUNDINGS
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #04HALIFAX101.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
04HALIFAX101 | 2004-04-05 14:02 | 2011-04-28 00:12 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Halifax |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HALIFAX 000101
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
FOR WHA/CAN
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON CA
SUBJECT: ATLANTIC CANADA: PRE-ELECTION SOUNDINGS
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The consensus of opinion among political
observers in Atlantic Canada is that Prime Minister Martin will
call an early summer election. While the region's 32 seats in
Parliament are a relatively small bloc, they could make the
difference in a close election between a minority and majority
government. Liberals think that Paul Martin will be much more
popular tan Stephen Harper in the region, and that they will be
able to steal some Conservative seats. Both Conservatives and
the NDP think voters are tired of the scandal-plagued Liberals
and ready for a change. However, our early guess is that there
will not be any seismic shifts in party alignment as a result of
the general election. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (SBU) The possibility of a federal election call in the
near future has Atlantic Canadian parties and politicians
nominating candidates, filling the campaign coffers and
positioning themselves to be ready when the writ is dropped.
The timing of the election is of course known only to the Prime
Minister, but the expectation in this region seems to be
generally for an early summer contest. Federal Infrastructure
Minister Andy Scott, for example, told CG that he does not
expect Parliament to be recalled after the Easter recess,
implying a late May/early June election. A prominent Halifax
Liberal who recently met with the PM said that Martin was upbeat
about the party's prospects and recent polling data showing that
Liberal support is recovering after a dip caused by the
sponsorship scandal; our contact thinks the election will be
held -- barring some unforeseen new scandalous revelation -- by
the end of June at the latest. Others expect the election to be
called just after the Prime Minister meets with the President,
although some cite the PM's desire to attend the 60th
anniversary ceremonies for D-Day as a reason that the election
call will not be made until early June.
¶3. (SBU) Atlantic Canada has 32 MPs and over half of the
region's seats are currently held by Liberals. The top-of-mind
issues for most Atlantic Canadians are health care, the economy
and jobs, similar to the rest of the country. Smaller but still
significant groups watch developments in federal fisheries and
environmental policies closely. The region as a whole tends to
be "small c" conservative on many social issues, particularly in
rural areas (as an illustration, Nova Scotia does not have
Sunday shopping and it is unclear if a promised referendum on
the issue will change that), but topics like gay marriage and
the gun registry do not excite the same level of passion that
they seem to in other regions. "Small l" liberalism is
concentrated in the cities, which are growing in population
relative to the countryside, something that has been reflected
in re-drawn riding boundaries for the next election. Atlantic
Canadian voting patterns can be contrarian, as the recent
Conservative Party leadership showed -- the region bucked the
national trend toward Stephen Harper and generally supported
Belinda Stronach.
PAUL MARTIN: TARNISHED BUT STILL POPULAR?
¶4. (SBU) Selection of candidates is important in many parts of
the region, and voters are often more comfortable with a
long-serving local politician or other community figure who is a
known quantity. Nevertheless, a popular national leader can
have long coat tails as well and tip the balance in close races.
Liberals in Atlantic Canada will run a campaign emphasizing
their leader, Prime Minister Paul Martin, whom they believe to
be the major party leader most trusted by voters in the region.
In addition they have a slate of experienced MPs, most of whom
will be running again.
¶5. (SBU) The Liberals are also making maximum use of
incumbency by doing their part to spread government largesse in
the area in advance of an election, with Liberal cabinet members
prominently announcing in recent weeks new federal funding for
university research and Halifax harbor cleanup, among other
items. The recent announcement of a 55% increase in the
allowable snow crab catch also will not hurt their chances at
the polls with people who make their living in the fishery.
THE HARPER FACTOR
¶6. (SBU) Although he has stressed his family's New Brunswick
roots, and has appointed a Nova Scotian as his deputy leader,
Conservative Stephen Harper is still viewed with some skepticism
in Atlantic Canada, primarily for his comments about the
region's "culture of defeat." He generally ran poorly in
Atlantic Canada during the leadership contest, although he did
well in ridings where he was either endorsed by a sitting MP
(such as NB Southwest's Greg Thompson) or where he was able to
campaign in person (such as Halifax). Harper has made the
effort to reach out to the region, making early trips to New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia, and has tried to clarify and soften
his earlier call for the elimination of the Atlantic Canada
Opportunities Agency.
¶7. (SBU) How well Harper plays in Atlantic Canada will be a
key to how well the Conservatives do here in the next election.
Conservatives in all four provinces profess to be delighted with
the party merger and with Harper's clear emergence as leader.
They say the party can now stop splitting the conservative vote
and unite to face entrenched Liberals. Nevertheless, there are
many "red Tories" in the region who are privately still somewhat
ambivalent about Harper's Reform Party background. Furthermore,
since Reform/Canadian Alliance never polled significantly in
Atlantic Canada, uniting the right as a practical matter will
not help Conservative fortunes much since the vote here was not
seriously split. New Brunswick MP John Herron has gone public
with his concerns about the merger, refusing to join the new
party and sitting in the House as an "Independent Conservative"
until the next election when he will run as a Liberal.
A PROTEST VOTE FOR THE NDP?
¶8. (SBU) Newfoundland and Labrador NDP leader Jack Harris told
CG that "optimists" in his party are predicting 60 federal seats
in the next election, many the result of a protest vote against
the scandal-plagued Liberals. Harris clearly thought that
estimate was high (COMMENT: So do we. END COMMENT), but he was
confident that the party would pick up seats nationwide in the
next election. Nova Scotia NDP leader Darrell Dexter, while
uneasy predicting a specific seat total, says he thinks a
minority government is a real possibility after the next
election. As one who is the leader of the opposition to a
minority Tory government, he is not enthusiastic about the same
thing at a national level.
¶9. (SBU) Jack Layton, at least as of now, does not seem to be
registering too strongly with voters in the region. Only in
Nova Scotia does the NDP have a noticeable presence at the
provincial level; and one of the party's sitting federal MPs
(Wendy Lill of Dartmouth) will not run again because of health
concerns. On balance the NDP's chances of significantly
improving its seat total in Atlantic Canada do not seem all that
great.
PROVINCE-BY-PROVINCE
¶10. (SBU) NOVA SCOTIA
The region's most populous province has 11 federal MPs: five
Liberals (including Fisheries Minister Geoff Regan, former
minister Robert Thibault, U.S. relations czar Scott Brison and
Parliamentary Secretary Mark Eyking), three Conservatives
(including Deputy leader Peter MacKay) and three NDP (including
former leader Alexa McDonough). Conservatives will target their
former member Scott Brison who crossed the floor to sit as a
Liberal; Stephen Harper has already appeared at the riding
meeting to select Brison's Conservative opponent and has said
that he would "pop in" more than once during the general
election to campaign for Brison's Conservative challenger and
return the riding to it's "traditional" blue. The NDP, usually
strongest in the cities, will go after Geoff Regan's Halifax
West seat and the Conservative-held South Shore riding where
they perceive a weak candidate.
¶11. (SBU) Liberals are confident they can gain one or more of
the Conservative-held seats in the province; the NDP thinks it
can pick off at least one Liberal and one Conservative;
Conservatives think Brison is vulnerable. Progressive
Conservative Premier John Hamm, who leads a minority government,
and was careful to stay away from endorsing anyone in the
leadership race, will throw his weight behind the Conservative
candidates, which could help in close races.
¶12. (SBU) NEW BRUNSWICK
Six of New Brunswick's 10 seats are Liberal, and John Herron
will run as a Liberal in the next election. The Conservatives
have two seats: one seems relatively safe while the other,
vacated by the retiring Elsie Wayne, is up for grabs. One
notable non-candidate in the next election, former Premier Frank
McKenna, told CG that he had been encouraged by the Prime
Minister to re-enter politics, but that the PM was not able to
deliver a promised Moncton-area riding from which to run.
McKenna refused to contest a nomination against a sitting
Liberal MP, citing the negative publicity of the Sheila
Copps-Tony Valeri food fight, and also said he was not inclined
to parachute into a riding where he had no local connections,
like Elsie Wayne's in St. John. McKenna was very upbeat about
Liberal prospects in New Brunswick, saying that despite
divisions and hard feelings among the Chretien and Martin camps,
"the party always closes ranks and rallies" at election time.
¶13. (SBU) NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
N-L's seven seats are split four Liberal and three Conservative.
Although the provincial government is handily controlled by the
Tories, Premier Danny Williams has seen his popularity fall
significantly since last November's election victory. He is
currently locked in a tough battle with public sector unions
over wages and job security, something that might have an impact
on Conservative fortunes in a federal election. One of his key
issues is a new revenue sharing deal with Ottawa for offshore
energy revenues, something that would sharply boost his
popularity. (FYI: Opposition leader Roger Grimes told CG that
if Williams pulls off a new deal with Ottawa: "I would vote for
him myself and urge others to do so." END FYI.) A senior
Liberal strategist told CG that Ottawa is ready to agree to a
new revenue-sharing formula for offshore energy royalties, but
won't do so until after the election to avoid giving any kind of
a boost to Williams (and Tory Premier John Hamm in NS).
¶14. (SBU) Former opposition house leader and current fisheries
critic Loyola Hearn told CG before the Conservative leadership
selection that he expected the party to keep its three seats and
possibly add one in a general election. But he also said that
N-L politics are volatile enough that depending on what was
happening at the time of the election he and his Conservative
colleagues could potentially all lose their seats. A Liberal
told CG that he expects exactly that to happen in N-L -- a
Liberal sweep.
¶15. (SBU) PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
With only four seats, tiny PEI is too easily overlooked in
federal political calculations. Currently all four seats are
held by Liberals, although at the provincial level the Tories in
late 2003 comfortably formed a government after taking 23 of the
27 seats in the legislature. Conservatives hope to pick one or
more seats at the federal level, and Premier Binns's deputy
minister recently stepped down from his government position to
seek a Conservative nomination to run in the general election.
COMMENT
¶16. (SBU) A week is a long time in politics, so handicapping a
yet-to-be-called election is largely a notional exercise (except
for the Prime Minister as he tries to determine an optimal time
to wrong-foot his opponents). But using the "snapshot" we've
taken in recent weeks of some of the key ridings, personalities
and issues it does not appear at this point that there will be a
major re-alignment of party fortunes in Atlantic Canada. Each
party is confident that it can make some gains, but only the
Liberals are talking -- privately, to be sure -- of a
significant increase in seats, mainly because of perceived
regional antipathy toward Stephen Harper. On election day it
may turn out that they were whistling past the graveyard, but
they do have the advantage of incumbency and a fairly popular
leader on their side. END COMMENT
HILL