Number: RL34487
Title: Japan's Nuclear Future: Policy Debate, Prospects, and U.S. Interests
Authors: Emma Chanlett-Avery and Mary Beth Nikitin, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division 
Abstract: This paper examines the prospects for Japan pursuing a nuclear weapons capability by assessing the existing technical infrastructure of its extensive civilian nuclear energy program. It explores the range of challenges that Japan would have to overcome to transform its current program into a military program. Presently, Japan appears to lack several of the prerequisites for a full-scale nuclear weapons deterrent: expertise on bomb design, reliable delivery vehicles, an intelligence program to protect and conceal assets, and sites for nuclear testing. In addition, a range of legal and political restraints on Japan's development of nuclear weapons, including averse public and elite opinion, restrictive domestic laws and practices, and the negative diplomatic consequences of abandoning its traditional approach is analyzed.
Pages: 13
Date: May 9, 2008