Number: RL31140
Title: Long-Term Economic Growth and Budget Projections
Authors: Brian W. Cashell, Government and Finance Division 
Abstract: This report examines the accuracy of past forecasts of economic growth by OMB, CBO, and the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, beginning with 1985. For the most part, the three forecasts did about equally well. The one exception seems to be that OMB's mean errors were less than those of the other two. In all three cases the forecasts, on average, tended to err on the pessimistic side, but because OMB's forecasts were optimistic relative to the other two, they had a smaller mean error. Interestingly, mean errors were actually larger in year 1 forecasts than they were for year 5 forecasts. There seemed to be no tendency for errors to increase the farther into the future the forecasts go.
Pages: 8
Date: March 1, 2006