Number: 98-672
Title: U.S. INTELLIGENCE AND INDIA'S NUCLEAR TESTS: LESSONS LEARNED
Authors: Richard A. Best, Jr., Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division 
Abstract: The U.S. Intelligence Community did not have advance knowledge that India intended to conduct nuclear tests beginning on May 11, 1998. Although intelligence agencies cannon have foreknowledge of every significant development in world affairs, many observers (and senior intelligence officials) believe than, in view of the election of an Indian government committed to "inducting" nuclear weapons, much greater attention should have been given to indications of impending nuclear tests. A persisting problem is the tendency of analysts to discount seemingly irrational initiatives by other nations.
Pages: 6
Date: Updated August 11, 1998