

Currently released so far... 12900 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
2011/05/13
2011/05/14
2011/05/15
2011/05/16
2011/05/17
2011/05/18
2011/05/19
2011/05/20
2011/05/21
2011/05/22
2011/05/23
2011/05/24
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Consulate Karachi
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
AE
ASEC
AS
AR
AMGT
AFIN
AORC
AU
AG
AF
APER
ABLD
ADCO
ABUD
AM
AID
AJ
AEMR
AMED
AL
ASUP
AN
AIT
ACOA
ANET
ASIG
AA
AGMT
AINF
AFFAIRS
ADANA
AY
AADP
ARF
ACS
AGR
AMCHAMS
AECL
AUC
APEC
APECO
AFGHANISTAN
ACAO
ASEAN
ADM
AGAO
AND
ADPM
ATRN
ALOW
AROC
APCS
AORG
AO
AODE
ACABQ
AX
AMEX
AZ
ARM
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
ACBAQ
AFSI
AFSN
AC
ASEX
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
ASCH
AFU
AMG
ATPDEA
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AORL
BR
BO
BA
BM
BL
BH
BK
BEXP
BILAT
BTIO
BF
BU
BD
BY
BE
BG
BB
BBSR
BT
BRUSSELS
BP
BX
BC
BIDEN
BMGT
BWC
BN
BTIU
CA
CS
CO
CD
CR
CPAS
CDG
CI
CDC
CBW
CU
CVIS
CE
CONS
CH
CMGT
CASC
CY
CW
CG
CJAN
CIDA
CODEL
CWC
CIA
CBSA
CEUDA
CFED
CLINTON
CAC
CL
CACS
CIC
CHR
CAPC
CM
CT
CTR
COM
CROS
CN
COPUOS
CV
CF
CARSON
CONDOLEEZZA
CICTE
CYPRUS
COUNTER
COUNTRY
CBE
CKGR
CVR
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CLEARANCE
COE
CARICOM
CB
CSW
CITT
CACM
CDB
CJUS
CTM
CAN
CLMT
CBC
CNARC
CIS
EFIN
ECON
ETRD
EAID
EC
EU
EUN
EINV
EG
ETTC
EIND
ELAB
EAGR
ECIN
EINT
ENRG
EFIS
ELTN
EAIR
EPET
EZ
ET
ENERG
ECPS
EWWT
EI
ETRN
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EEPET
EUNCH
ER
ES
EN
EMIN
ESENV
ENNP
ENGR
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENVI
ECINECONCS
ELN
EFTA
ELECTIONS
ENVR
EXTERNAL
ENIV
ESA
EPA
ETRO
ETRDECONWTOCS
EUR
ECUN
EXIM
EK
EUREM
ECONOMY
EUMEM
ERNG
EFINECONCS
EAIDS
ECA
ETRC
EINVEFIN
ETC
EAP
EINN
ECONOMIC
EXBS
ENGY
ECONOMICS
EIAR
EINDETRD
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
EFIM
EREL
EINVETC
ECONCS
ETRA
EAIG
EUC
ERD
IQ
IR
IS
IN
IA
IC
IZ
ICRC
ID
IDA
IT
IO
IAEA
ICJ
ICAO
IV
IBRD
IMF
IAHRC
IWC
ILO
ISLAMISTS
IGAD
ILC
ITU
ITF
INRA
INRO
ICTY
INRB
ITALY
IBET
IL
INTELSAT
ISRAELI
IMO
IDP
ICTR
ITRA
IRC
IRAQI
IEFIN
IPR
IIP
INMARSAT
ITPGOV
ITALIAN
INTERNAL
IRS
INTERPOL
IEA
INR
ISRAEL
IZPREL
IRAJ
IF
ITPHUM
IACI
INDO
KPAO
KMDR
KCOR
KNNP
KJUS
KCRM
KDEM
KVPR
KTFN
KPRP
KTIP
KSCA
KSUM
KTEX
KIDE
KIRF
KV
KTIA
KN
KG
KFRD
KWMN
KUNR
KISL
KU
KGHG
KPKO
KOMS
KPAL
KIPR
KMCA
KOMC
KRVC
KSEP
KAWC
KOLY
KWBG
KACT
KFLO
KHIV
KZ
KGIC
KBCT
KDRG
KBTR
KCFE
KE
KHLS
KMPI
KAWK
KPWR
KIRC
KRAD
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFLU
KPLS
KRIM
KSTH
KDDG
KPRV
KICC
KS
KSAF
KBIO
KREC
KCGC
KCIP
KTDB
KWAC
KPAI
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KFSC
KSTC
KMFO
KID
KNAR
KMIG
KVRP
KNEI
KGIT
KNSD
KHDP
KSAC
KWMM
KR
KCOM
KAID
KENV
KVIR
KHSA
KO
KCRS
KPOA
KTER
KFIN
KSPR
KTBT
KX
KCMR
KMOC
KCRCM
KBTS
KSEO
KOCI
KNUP
KPAONZ
KNUC
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KSCI
KTLA
KCSY
KTRD
KMRS
KNPP
KJUST
KRCM
KCFC
KCHG
KREL
KFTFN
KLIG
KDEMAF
KGCC
KICA
KHUM
KSEC
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KPIR
KWWMN
KOM
KWNM
KRFD
KRGY
KIFR
KWMNCS
KPAK
MARR
MOPS
MUCN
MCAP
MNUC
MEPP
MTCRE
MASS
MO
MIL
MX
MAS
MEDIA
MAR
MI
MQADHAFI
MPOS
MTCR
MK
MG
MA
MY
MU
ML
MPS
MW
MD
MARAD
MC
MR
MT
MTRE
MASC
MRCRE
MAPP
MZ
MP
MOPPS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MEPN
MEPI
MEETINGS
MERCOSUR
MCC
MIK
MAPS
MV
MILITARY
MDC
MASSMNUC
NI
NZ
NL
NO
NPT
NATO
NS
NU
NP
NPA
NSFO
NDP
NT
NW
NASA
NSG
NE
NORAD
NAFTA
NG
NATIONAL
NSSP
NV
NSF
NK
NA
NEW
NPG
NR
NGO
NIPP
NZUS
NH
NC
NRR
NAR
NATOPREL
NSC
OIIP
OPRC
OTRA
OEXC
OREP
OSCE
OVIP
OPAD
OBSP
OECD
OFFICIALS
OAS
OPDC
ODIP
OPCW
OES
OFDP
OPIC
OCS
OIC
OHUM
OSCI
OVP
ODC
OIE
OTR
OMIG
OSAC
OFDA
ON
OCII
PREL
PINR
PGOV
PARM
PE
PTER
PHUM
PO
PINS
PREF
PK
PM
POL
PBTS
PNAT
PHSA
PAS
PA
PL
PGIV
PHUMPREL
POGOV
PAK
PEL
PROP
PP
PINL
PBT
PTBS
PG
PINF
PRL
PALESTINIAN
PSEPC
POSTS
PAHO
PHUMPGOV
PGOC
PNR
PREFA
PMIL
POLITICS
POLICY
PROV
PBIO
PREO
PAO
PDOV
PGOF
POV
PCI
PRAM
PSI
POLITICAL
PAIGH
PJUS
PARMS
PROG
PTERE
PRGOV
PORG
PS
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PNG
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PHUMBA
POLINT
PGOVE
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PY
PLN
PHUH
PF
PHUS
PU
PARTIES
PCUL
PGGV
PSA
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
RU
RS
REGION
REACTION
REPORT
RO
RW
RCMP
RSO
RP
RM
ROOD
RFE
RICE
ROBERT
RSP
RF
RELATIONS
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
RUPREL
SENV
SY
SNAR
SCUL
SP
SF
SW
SOCI
SU
SMIG
SO
SA
SR
SZ
SI
SC
SEVN
SN
STEINBERG
SK
SH
SNARCS
SPCE
SARS
SNARN
SG
SL
SYRIA
SIPRS
SAARC
SNARIZ
SWE
SYR
SEN
SCRS
SAN
ST
SIPDIS
SSA
SPCVIS
SOFA
SENVKGHG
SANC
SHI
SHUM
TU
TSPA
TBIO
TS
TRGY
TINT
TPHY
TN
TW
TH
TZ
TSPL
TP
TBID
TI
TF
TD
TT
TNGD
TL
TC
THPY
TIP
TX
TV
TK
TERRORISM
TO
TRSY
TURKEY
TFIN
TAGS
TR
UK
UNSC
UNGA
UNESCO
UNHRC
UP
UN
USTR
US
UNDC
UY
UNICEF
UNDP
UNMIK
UNAUS
UNCHC
UNCSD
USOAS
UNFCYP
UG
UNIDROIT
UNO
UV
UNHCR
UNEP
USEU
UZ
UNCND
USUN
UNCHR
USNC
USPS
USAID
UE
UNVIE
UAE
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNDESCO
UNC
UNPUOS
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 06BUENOSAIRES1912, THE LEADING CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION LEADER ON
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #06BUENOSAIRES1912.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06BUENOSAIRES1912 | 2006-08-25 18:20 | 2011-03-13 07:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Buenos Aires |
Appears in these articles: http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1357063-eeuu-veia-una-oposicion-cercana-a-la-irrelevancia |
VZCZCXRO1632
PP RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHQU RUEHTM RUEHVC
DE RUEHBU #1912/01 2371820
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 251820Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5678
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHNA/DEA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNMRC/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 1694
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BUENOS AIRES 001912
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO
NSC FOR DAN FISK
TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE
USCINCSO FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR
SUBJECT: THE LEADING CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION LEADER ON
ARGENTINA'S POLITICAL SITUATION
REF: 05 BUENOS AIRES 01391
Classified By: CDA, a.i., Michael Matera, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)
------------------------
SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION
------------------------
¶1. (C) On August 24, ADCM and Poloff (notetaker) met with
center-left opposition leader Elisa Carrio, who gave her view
of the current political situation in Argentina. Elisa
Carrio began the discussion with her analysis of President
Kirchner's foreign policy, which she argued was marked by a
confrontational style and a dangerous relationship with
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. In a surprising admission,
Carrio said that Kirchner's relationship with the USG is the
only thing that is moderating Kirchner's alliance with
Chavez. Carrio lamented in her words the lack of strategic
vision that Brazil has, praised Chilean President Bachelet,
and urged the U.S. to do everything we can to ensure that
President Garcia succeeds in Peru to prevent ""another
Chavez.""
¶2. (C) Turning to domestic politics, Elisa Carrio argued
that President Kirchner would likely win reelection in 2007,
but that Kirchner's government would fail in the long term.
Carrio argued the opposition needed to be ready to assume
power when Kirchner falls and said that opposition alliances
only made it easier for Kirchner to poach new allies. Asked
about the future of her old party, the Radical Civic Union
(UCR), she said the party was dying. Carrio reported good
relations with Republican Proposal (PRO) leaders Maurcio
Macri and Ricardo Lopez Murphy, but disagreed with their
vision to solve the country's crime problem. Regarding ARI
and her own future, she said it was good for her to step
aside from the party leadership and expressed confidence that
she and ARI would eventually run the country. Carrio also
lamented Argentina's weak institutions and the lack of
intelligent debate in the Argentine Congress.
¶3. (C) Background: Elisa Carrio is the most significant
center-left opposition figure in Argentina. She ran for
President in 2003, coming in fifth place. She is currently a
member of the Lower House of Congress, representing the City
of Buenos Aires. She is a declared candidate for the 2007
presidential elections. Carrio has recently given up her
leadership role in the party she founded in 2001, Affirmation
for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI), but she remains ARI's
presidential candidate and continues to have regular contact
with ARI's leadership. ARI has been plagued by several
recent defections to President Kirchner's alliance and
disputes within the party over a controversial birth control
bill, which led Carrio to step aside from her party
leadership position. Poloff met on August 23 with Fernando
Cantero, the leader of ARI's bloc in the Buenos Aires City
Legislature, who strongly criticized Carrio's authoritarian
tendencies and failure to explain her meetings with
center-right politicians like Ricardo Lopez Murphy and
Patricia Bullrich to the party faithful. (For more on Elisa
Carrio and ARI, see reftel.) END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION.
------------------------------------------
ARGENTINA'S CONFRONTATIONAL FOREIGN POLICY
------------------------------------------
¶4. (C) On August 24, ADCM and Poloff (notetaker) met with
center-left opposition leader Elisa Carrio, who gave her view
of the current political situation in Argentina. Elisa
Carrio began the discussion with her analysis of President
Kirchner's foreign policy, which she argued was marked by a
confrontational style and a dangerous relationship with
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. ""Kirchner picks fights
with everyone in the region. It was wrong for Kirchner to
snub Peruvian President Garcia by skipping his inauguration.
Kirchner has also created conflicts with Uruguay and
Paraguay."" Carrio attributed Kirchner's confrontational
style to his background in Patagonia and insular style.
BUENOS AIR 00001912 002 OF 004
""Everyone on the outside is viewed as an enemy. He has
little understanding of the larger world.""
¶5. (C) Carrio argued that Kirchner's relationship with
Chavez is based primarily on corrupt business deals managed
by Planning Minister Julio De Vido, but carried with it
serious dangers because it could draw Argentina into the
Mideast conflict because of Chavez's close relations with
Iran. ""Kirchner can disagree publicly with Chavez on certain
issues, but that will never affect the business deals that he
and De Vido have with Chavez."" For Carrio, the relationship
with Venezuela was risky. ""The United States is deeply
involved in the Mideast conflict and Europe cannot avoid it.
Latin American can and should avoid being drawn into the
conflict. Chavez's relationship with Iran is dangerous and
could pull Argentina into the conflict.""
¶6. (C) In a surprising admission, Carrio said that
Kirchner's relationship with the USG is the only thing that
is moderating Kirchner's alliance with Chavez. For Carrio,
there are limits on how far Kirchner is willing to go with
Chavez because Kirchner does not want a major conflict with
the United States. ""Kirchner will never seek a serious
conflict with the United States. He is fascinated with the
U.S., even though he only really knows New York.""
¶7. (C) Carrio lamented in her words the lack of strategic
vision that Brazil has, praised Chilean President Bachelet,
and urged the U.S. to do everything we can to ensure that
President Garcia succeeds in Peru to prevent ""another
Chavez."" Carrio argued that Brazil's lack of strategic
vision and weakness in the region has allowed Chavez to gain
influence in the region, which is compounded by Kirchner's
alliance with Chavez. She acknowledged that many people hope
the situation will improve after Brazilian President Lula
wins re-election, but she herself was not optimistic. She
said she saw a lot of herself in Chilean President Bachelet
and thought Bachelet would be successful. Carrio argued that
Peruvian runner-up Ollanta Humala was another Chavez that
would assume power in Peru if President Garcia failed.
¶8. (C) Carrio said that Bolivian President Morales was not
like Chavez and instead represented the legitimate desire of
the Bolivian indigenous majority for a political voice.
""Don't confuse Morales with Chavez. Morales has to succeed
in order to preserve social order in Bolivia. He needs to be
like Nelson Mandela in South Africa.""
¶9. (C) On Cuba, Carrio said that the GOC was a dictatorship.
""For me, Fidel Castro was a hero at one time, and the Cuban
revolution had a legitimate original purpose. Now, however,
we have to recognize that it has just become a dictatorship.""
--------------------------------------------- -----------
DOMESTIC SITUATION BLEAK, BUT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT LONG TERM
--------------------------------------------- -----------
¶10. (C) Elisa Carrio argued that President Kirchner would
likely win reelection in 2007, but that Kirchner's government
would fail in the long term. Carrio said that despite
Kirchner's apparent political strength, his support is thin.
""Kirchner is an evil that is very wide, but only three
centimeters deep. Unlike Alfonsin and Menem, Kirchner lacks
charisma, and no one has a great love for him. Even his
closest associates would prefer not to stand next to him.
Kirchner has no real political party, since the Peronist
Party structure is gone. Also, since the crisis, Argentina
has lacked the political corporate solidarity that it once
had to support a president in crisis. When the next crisis
hits, Kirchner could fall very quickly."" She said that
Kirchner will not be able to modify the Constitution to run
again in 2011 because he will fall before he has a chance.
¶11. (C) Carrio argued the opposition needed to be ready to
assume power when Kirchner falls and said that opposition
BUENOS AIR 00001912 003 OF 004
alliances only made it easier for Kirchner to poach new
allies. Carrio noted that ARI has been training thousands of
activists over the past several years on how to properly run
a functioning government. Carrio said that ARI has avoided
being involved in opposition alliances to prevent the
dilution of their political force, which she said would only
benefit Kirchner. ""In ARI we have 15 percent of the vote
that Kirchner cannot touch. The proposed opposition alliance
will be a marriage of the worst of Radicalismo and Duhaldismo
in support of Lavagna. Lavagna will lose in the end and then
Kirchner will co-opt most of the alliance's legislators.""
¶12. (C) Asked about the future of her old party, the Radical
Civic Union (UCR), she said the party was dying. ""The party
convention that is starting tomorrow is the beginning of the
end."" Carrio said that the Radicales that align with
Kirchner will be absorbed into Peronism within a few years,
as the Peronists have done with several other parties that
have aligned with it over the past 60 years.
¶13. (C) Carrio reported good relations with Republican
Proposal (PRO) leaders Maurcio Macri and Ricardo Lopez
Murphy, but disagreed with their vision to solve the
country's crime problem. Carrio said that the crime issue
was too important to be entrusted to the center-right, who
want to solve the problem by changing the penal code to
increase sentences. Carrio argued that the real source of
the crime problem was poverty and drugs. Carrio said that
Carlos Bloomberg had become the center of the anti-crime
campaign, which was problematic because Bloomberg was
vulnerable to attack by Kirchner because of a potential fraud
scandal involving a failed Bloomberg business several years
ago. The center-right's control over the crime issue played
into Kirchner's hands, Carrio argued. ""Kirchner wants to
create the appearance of a fight between the rich and the
poor, where he is seen as the defender of the poor. Kirchner
uses D'Elia to help create this situation and Bloomberg is a
convenient target.""
¶14. (C) Regarding ARI and her own future, she said it was
good for her to step aside from the party leadership and
expressed confidence that she and ARI would eventually run
the country. ""They (the ARI leadership) need to learn to
take responsibility. They have shifted left since I stepped
down, but it is all part of the development process. ARI is
a small party, but one day it will govern the country.""
Carrio said that the polls show people admire her, but the
majority of people would never vote for her. ""I talk about
the need for a 20-year plan to change this country, about the
need for a Moncloa Pact in this country between labor,
business and the government. Argentines want someone to give
them a short-term solution and there are no short-term
solutions to Argentina's problems. The people need to change
their way of thinking.""
¶15. (C) Carrio lamented Argentina's weak institutions and
the lack of intelligent debate in the Argentine Congress.
""When I first entered Congress in 1995, the members of
Congress could at least debate issues and reach agreements,
even the Menemists. Now, there is no debate. Everyone is
too scared of saying something that will offend Kirchner and
most legislators lack the formation to carry on an
intelligent debate on the issues."" Carrio said that the
Supreme Court was the only remaining independent institution
in the country. Carrio argued that Kirchner did not fill the
two vacancies on the court because he regretted the
independent justices that he appointed early in his term.
Carrio said that Kirchner planned to appoint cronies to the
court after he wins election, starting with Legal and
Technical Secretary Carlos Zannini.
-------
COMMENT
-------
¶16. (C) Elisa Carrio's broad education and her log
experience in Argentine politics make her an interesting
BUENOS AIR 00001912 004 OF 004
person to talk to about the country's political situation.
She is also one of the few Argentine political leaders that
seems to genuinely care about the health of the country's
democratic institutions. Carrio has had difficult time
explaining how to translate her broad proposals and solutions
into concrete reality. As a result, polls show that although
Argentines generally like Carrio's discourse and think that
she makes a positive contribution to the dialogue in
Congress, they would be reluctant to vote for her for an
executive position. Her apparent inability to manage her own
party only adds to this impression. Carrio will need to
demonstrate her management skills to the Argentine public in
the coming years or risk permanently surrendering the
leadership of the opposition to the center-right. We will
continue to meet with Carrio periodically in the coming year
to assist our political reporting in the run-up to next
year's presidential elections.
MATERA