

Currently released so far... 12646 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
2011/05/13
2011/05/14
2011/05/15
2011/05/16
2011/05/17
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
AORC
AF
AU
ASEC
AMGT
AS
APER
AR
AEMR
AG
ARF
AJ
AA
AINF
APECO
AODE
ABLD
AMG
ATPDEA
AE
AMED
AGAO
AFIN
AL
ASUP
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AID
ASCH
AM
AORL
ASEAN
APEC
ADM
AFSI
AFSN
ADCO
ABUD
AN
AY
AIT
ACOA
ASIG
AADP
AGR
ANET
ADPM
AMCHAMS
ATRN
ALOW
ACS
APCS
AFFAIRS
ADANA
AECL
ACAO
AORG
AROC
AO
ACABQ
AGMT
AX
AMEX
AFGHANISTAN
AZ
AND
ARM
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
ACBAQ
AC
AUC
ASEX
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
AFU
BR
BTIO
BY
BO
BA
BU
BL
BN
BM
BF
BEXP
BK
BG
BB
BTIU
BBSR
BRUSSELS
BD
BIDEN
BE
BH
BILAT
BC
BT
BP
BX
BMGT
BWC
CS
CA
CH
CD
CO
CE
CU
CVIS
CASC
CJAN
CI
CPAS
CMGT
CDG
CIC
CAC
CBW
CWC
COUNTER
CW
CT
CR
CY
CNARC
CACM
CG
CB
CM
CV
CIDA
CLINTON
CHR
COE
CIS
CDC
CONS
CF
CFED
CODEL
CBSA
CEUDA
COM
CARSON
COPUOS
CIA
CL
CN
CROS
CAPC
CTR
CACS
CONDOLEEZZA
CICTE
COUNTRY
CBE
CKGR
CVR
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CLEARANCE
CARICOM
CSW
CITT
CDB
CJUS
CTM
CAN
CLMT
CBC
EAID
ECON
EFIS
ETRD
EC
ENRG
EINV
EFIN
EAGR
ETTC
ECPS
EINT
EPET
ES
EIND
EAIR
EU
EUN
EG
ELAB
EWWT
EMIN
ECIN
ESA
ER
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
EAIG
ET
ETRO
ELTN
EI
EN
EUR
EK
EUMEM
ENIV
EPA
ENGR
EXTERNAL
EUREM
ELN
EUC
ENERG
EZ
ERD
EFTA
ETRC
ETRN
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EEPET
EUNCH
ENVR
ESENV
ENNP
ERNG
ENVI
ETRDECONWTOCS
ECINECONCS
EFINECONCS
EXIM
ELECTIONS
ECA
EINVEFIN
ETC
EAP
ECONOMY
EINN
ECONOMIC
EXBS
ECUN
ENGY
ECONOMICS
EIAR
EINDETRD
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
EFIM
EAIDS
EREL
EINVETC
ECONCS
ETRA
IC
IV
IAEA
IR
IT
IO
IN
IS
IZ
IMO
IPR
IWC
ICAO
ILO
ID
ICTY
ICJ
INMARSAT
INDO
IL
IMF
IRS
IQ
IA
ICRC
IDA
IAHRC
IBRD
ISLAMISTS
IDP
IGAD
ILC
ITRA
ICTR
ITU
IBET
ITF
INRA
INRO
INTELSAT
IEFIN
IRC
IRAQI
ITALY
ISRAELI
IIP
ITPGOV
ITALIAN
INTERNAL
INTERPOL
IEA
INRB
INR
IZPREL
IRAJ
IF
ITPHUM
ISRAEL
IACI
KBTR
KPAO
KOMC
KCRM
KDEM
KHIV
KBIO
KTIA
KMDR
KNNP
KSCA
KTIP
KWMN
KIPR
KCOR
KRVC
KFRD
KPAL
KWBG
KE
KTDB
KUNR
KSPR
KJUS
KGHG
KAWC
KCFE
KGCC
KOLY
KSUM
KACT
KISL
KTFN
KFLU
KSTH
KMPI
KHDP
KS
KHLS
KSEP
KMRS
KID
KN
KU
KAWK
KSAC
KCOM
KAID
KIRC
KWMNCS
KMCA
KNEI
KCRS
KPKO
KICC
KIRF
KPOA
KV
KDRG
KSEO
KVPR
KTER
KBCT
KFIN
KGIC
KCIP
KZ
KG
KWAC
KRAD
KPRP
KTEX
KNAR
KPLS
KPAK
KSTC
KFLO
KSCI
KIDE
KO
KOMS
KHSA
KSAF
KPWR
KVRP
KENV
KNSD
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCGC
KVIR
KFSC
KDDG
KPRV
KTBT
KWMM
KX
KMFO
KR
KMOC
KRIM
KCRCM
KBTS
KOCI
KGIT
KNUP
KPAONZ
KNUC
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KTLA
KCSY
KTRD
KNPP
KJUST
KCMR
KRCM
KCFC
KCHG
KREL
KFTFN
KLIG
KDEMAF
KPAI
KICA
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KHUM
KREC
KSEC
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KWWMN
KOM
KWNM
KRFD
KMIG
KRGY
KIFR
MARR
MOPS
MASS
MX
MNUC
MCAP
MO
MR
MEPP
MTCRE
MAPP
MEPN
MZ
MT
ML
MA
MY
MIL
MD
MASSMNUC
MU
MK
MTCR
MUCN
MAS
MEDIA
MAR
MC
MI
MQADHAFI
MPOS
MARAD
MG
MTRE
MASC
MW
MRCRE
MP
MOPPS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MEPI
MEETINGS
MERCOSUR
MCC
MIK
MAPS
MV
MILITARY
MDC
NATO
NZ
NL
NO
NK
NU
NPT
NI
NG
NEW
NSF
NA
NPG
NSG
NE
NSSP
NS
NDP
NSC
NAFTA
NH
NV
NP
NPA
NSFO
NT
NW
NASA
NORAD
NGO
NR
NATIONAL
NIPP
NZUS
NC
NRR
NAR
NATOPREL
OEXC
OTRA
OPRC
OVIP
OAS
OECD
OIIP
OSCE
OREP
OPIC
OFDP
OMIG
ODIP
OVP
OSCI
OIC
OIE
OPDC
ON
OCII
OPAD
OBSP
OFFICIALS
OPCW
OHUM
OES
OCS
OTR
OSAC
OFDA
PGOV
PREL
PM
PHUM
PTER
PINR
PINS
PREF
PARM
PL
PK
PU
PBTS
PBIO
PHSA
PE
PO
PROP
PA
PNAT
POL
PLN
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PCUL
PAK
PGGV
PAO
PSA
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PAS
PGIV
PHUMPREL
PDOV
PHUMPGOV
PCI
PTBS
PEL
PG
POLITICS
POLICY
PINL
POGOV
POV
PRAM
PP
PREO
PAHO
PBT
PREFA
PSI
PAIGH
POSTS
PMIL
PALESTINIAN
PARMS
PROG
PTERE
PRGOV
PORG
PS
PGOF
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PINF
PNG
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PHUMBA
PSEPC
PNR
POLINT
PGOVE
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PROV
PGOC
PY
PHUH
PF
PRL
PHUS
RU
RS
RO
RW
RP
RFE
REGION
REACTION
REPORT
RCMP
RM
RSO
ROBERT
RICE
RSP
RF
ROOD
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
RUPREL
RELATIONS
SENV
SU
SCUL
SOCI
SNAR
SL
SW
SMIG
SP
SY
SA
SHUM
SZ
SYRIA
SF
SR
SO
SPCE
SARS
SN
SC
SIPRS
SI
SYR
SEVN
SNARCS
SH
SAARC
STEINBERG
SG
SCRS
SENVKGHG
SAN
ST
SIPDIS
SNARIZ
SNARN
SSA
SK
SPCVIS
SOFA
SANC
SWE
SHI
SEN
TW
TU
TBIO
TSPL
TPHY
TRGY
TC
TT
TSPA
TINT
TERRORISM
TX
TR
TS
TN
TD
TH
TIP
TNGD
TI
TZ
TF
THPY
TP
TBID
TL
TV
TK
TO
TRSY
TURKEY
TFIN
TAGS
UN
UK
UNSC
UNGA
US
UNESCO
UP
UNHRC
UNAUS
USTR
UNDP
UNEP
UNMIK
UY
UNCHR
UNO
UG
UZ
UNPUOS
USEU
UNDC
UNICEF
UV
UNHCR
UNCND
UNCHC
UNCSD
USUN
USOAS
UNFCYP
USNC
UNIDROIT
USPS
USAID
UE
UNVIE
UAE
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNDESCO
UNC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 06WELLINGTON230, GNZ AIMS TO COOL EXPECTATIONS FOR U.S. FTA
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #06WELLINGTON230.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06WELLINGTON230 | 2006-03-24 04:51 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Wellington |
VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB
DE RUEHWL #0230/01 0830451
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 240451Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2568
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4350
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 0041
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000230
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE PASS USTR-BWEISEL
STATE FOR EB/TPP/MTA-MBGOODMAN AND EAP/ANP-DRICCI
COMMERCE FOR ABENAISSA/4530/ITA/MAC/AP/OSAO
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2016
TAGS: ETRD PGOV PREL NZ
SUBJECT: GNZ AIMS TO COOL EXPECTATIONS FOR U.S. FTA
REF: A. WELLINGTON 40
¶B. 04 WELLINGTON 217
(U) Classified by Deputy Chief of Mission David R. Burnett.
Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).
¶1. (C) Summary: The New Zealand government is preparing the
public for the likelihood it will not attain free trade
negotiations with the United States any time soon. After six
years of pressing its case for such a deal, the Labour-led
government has turned its attention to agreements in Asia.
The government can be expected to attempt to immunize itself
against domestic political criticism that its failure to
secure an FTA is the result of Labour,s icy relations with
Washington. If pushed, Labour will likely trot out any and
all rationales for why an FTA is not in the cards to deflect
any accusations that it is at fault. End summary.
Into the future
---------------
¶2. (C) Trade Minister Goff in a March 15 statement implied
that, although New Zealand still desired a free trade
agreement (FTA) with the United States, it probably would not
get one. Goff pointed to the U.S. &strategy of negotiating
with larger economies8 and the limited time before Trade
Promotion Authority expires. It is perhaps the first time
that the government has shared with the public a realistic
appraisal of its chance for FTA talks with Washington. An
aide to Goff said the statement reflects the government,s
recognition that it needs to lower the public,s expectations
) expectations that the government itself had fed until
recently.
¶3. (C) An FTA with the United States had topped the Labour
government,s foreign policy objectives since it came to
power in 1999. But officials from the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs and Trade have told post recently that they had
accepted the fact that an FTA was not in the works.
Why New Zealand wants a deal
----------------------------
¶4. (U) Studies predict that, under an FTA, New Zealand,s
merchandise exports to the United States ) already New
Zealand,s second-largest export market ) would increase 51
percent. The New Zealand government,s competitive envy at
seeing Australia sign an FTA with the United States in May
2004 only fueled its desire for a similar pact. Its chief
concern was that the U.S.-Australia FTA could draw down New
Zealand exports to the United States, as well as draw off
U.S. investment in New Zealand.
¶5. (C) New Zealand,s hopes for improved trade still ride on
the success of the Doha Round. (The Uruguay Round pumped an
estimated $6 billion into the New Zealand economy through
additional export revenue and tariff savings.) But New
Zealand is pursuing a &Plan B8 ) bilateral and regional
trade agreements ) should the WTO talks fall apart. It has
completed free trade deals with Australia, Singapore and
Thailand. It has agreed to a four-way partnership with
Brunei, Chile and Singapore, and it is negotiating FTAs with
China, Malaysia and the ASEAN countries. New Zealand
officials had hoped their pursuit of an FTA with China would
stimulate U.S. concern and interest in starting talks with
New Zealand on a trade deal (ref B).
¶6. (C) But the Labour government,s desire for an FTA with
the United States is now less a matter of economics and more
a matter of domestic politics. The lack of an FTA with the
United States makes the New Zealand government politically
vulnerable to accusations by opposition parties that it has
weakened ties with both Australia and the United States. An
FTA would show New Zealanders that Americans are not
disaffected by the Labour-led government, which is aware that
it &soiled the waters8 since President Bush took office,
said an international lawyer and former trade negotiator.
Ironically, reaching an FTA with China could call the
public,s attention to the government,s failure to achieve a
U.S. agreement, as well as raise questions on whether New
Zealand's economy would become dangerously dependent on a
much larger, undemocratic PRC.
¶7. (C) Over the last six years, the New Zealand government
has diligently recruited allies to its quest for an FTA. It
rounded up backing in Congress, with 65 members signing up as
"Friends of New Zealand8 supporting free trade talks.
(Goff's March 15 statement was in response to a letter
written by Senators John McCain and John Sununu encouraging
the President to launch FTA negotiations with New Zealand.)
It lobbied for and won U.S. business endorsement, partly
through the United States-New Zealand Council. John Wood,
who recently ended his term as New Zealand ambassador to the
United States, even made the FTA the defining goal that would
mark his success in Washington (and misled his Prime Minister
over the likely odds the United States would agree to
negotiations). Many New Zealanders consider the
government,s contribution of troops in Afghanistan and
engineers in Iraq as part of the outreach aimed at bringing
the United States into FTA negotiations.
But it has mixed feelings
-------------------------
¶8. (C) Insiders say that Prime Minister Clark has appeared
sometimes testy in private, expressing exasperation over
Washington,s failure to agree to FTA talks. The government
is sensitive to being perceived as &begging8 and is aware
that it has worn out its welcome with U.S. government
officials on this issue, according to Goff,s aide.
¶9. (C) But there may be another reason for that testiness,
said a trade economist who has advised the government on its
trade policy. Lurking just under the surface is a
"schizophrenia8 that comes from Clark,s innate discomfort
with free trade and her preference, as a Labour idealist, for
a government-interventionist approach to the economy.
¶10. (C) Moreover, PM Clark and others in her government worry
about the concessions New Zealand might need to make to seal
a free-trade deal. Among their concerns is a desire to
preserve the government-run system for purchasing
pharmaceuticals, according to the economist. Because of that
desire, Heather Simpson ) the Prime Minister,s chief of
staff, close confidante and a former health economist )
opposes the FTA talks. The New Zealand government would be
hard-pressed to meet likely U.S. demands that it open the
drug-purchasing system to greater competition and choice.
That would be costly, and health care expenses already are
the largest component of the New Zealand budget (ref A).
¶11. (C) The government also knows that U.S. dairy interests
would defend their turf against New Zealand,s efficient
competitors. New Zealand officials acknowledge that they
stand to gain more from an FTA than the United States. With
very few tariffs, the New Zealand market already is
relatively open. Aside from increased access to the drug and
telecommunications sectors and possibly a wider ban on
parallel imports, the United States has little to gain.
The public,s response
---------------------
¶12. (C) The New Zealand public accepts as an article of
faith that a deal would boost the New Zealand economy.
However, after so much talk over so many years, many New
Zealanders have become jaded to the prospect, a university
business professor said. Most of the domestic pressure for a
U.S. FTA comes from a small section of New Zealand business
) notably, the dairy cooperative Fonterra. Most of the
country,s businesses are small and rely little on exports.
In addition, both the horticulture and meat industries are
more frightened by the concessions that New Zealand might
make than attracted by the benefits they might reap, an
industry leader said. Only a muted public response, if any,
is expected to the government,s scuttled hopes for an FTA.
¶13. (C) And, even if there were political repercussions, the
Labour government can always shift the blame to the United
States, the international lawyer said. Goff in his March 15
statement said, &The decision to negotiate an FTA however
rests with the US Administration.8 The Labour government
can blame its anti-nuclear policy and its opposition to the
war in Iraq as reasons why the United States will not engage
in talks. Such explanations are likely to wash with New
Zealand voters, many of whom hold strong anti-nuclear and
anti-Iraq war views. (For this reason, EAP A/S Hill's public
remarks that the United States will make its FTA decision on
economic factors alone were well-timed and very useful.) In
any event, the public largely holds the New Zealand
government blameless for the lack of FTA negotiations,
according to the lawyer. Labour's political opponents also
need to tread carefully. The National Party is mindful that
it may fare no better in securing an FTA should it win the
2008 election, a former diplomat said.
¶14. (SBU) However, if Australia reaps large gains from its
FTA with the United States, public attitudes could change in
New Zealand.
Comment
-------
¶15. (C) In the near term, New Zealand government officials
will continue to press us in private meetings for an FTA, but
in a more low-key way. They also will continue to publicly
call for FTA negotiations with the United States while at the
same time lowering the public,s expectations. Post believes
we should stick with our current response, saying that the
possibility of negotiations is not foreclosed. Keeping the
option open gives us flexibility should circumstances change
and make an FTA in our interest ) and deniability should the
New Zealand government pin the blame on the United States.
McCormick