

Currently released so far... 6230 / 251,287
Articles
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Amsterdam
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lagos
Mission USNATO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Browse by tag
ASEC
AF
AE
AR
AORC
AJ
AU
AM
ABLD
AL
AMGT
ASUP
AFIN
APER
ABUD
AVERY
APCS
AEMR
ADCO
APECO
ASIG
AG
AA
AS
AFFAIRS
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AMED
AO
ACOA
AX
AROC
ATFN
ASEAN
AFGHANISTAN
AFU
AER
ALOW
AODE
ATRN
AID
AC
AGMT
CH
CO
CS
CE
CU
CLINTON
CG
CVIS
CMGT
CI
CJAN
CF
COM
CASC
CA
CBW
CM
CDG
CR
COUNTER
CD
CWC
CKGR
CN
CPAS
CJUS
CV
CONS
CT
CY
COUNTERTERRORISM
CIA
CACM
CDB
CAN
COE
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CACS
CONDOLEEZZA
CARSON
CL
CIS
CODEL
CTM
CB
ECON
EFIN
EAIR
EUN
EINV
ENRG
EG
ETRD
EPET
ETTC
ELAB
EU
ER
ET
EAGR
ECPS
ECIN
ELTN
EAID
EMIN
EWWT
EFIS
EIND
EC
ES
EN
EI
ENVR
ENGR
ENIV
EUNCH
ENVI
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ELN
EZ
EXTERNAL
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EINT
EUR
ECINECONCS
ENNP
EFINECONCS
EK
ELECTIONS
ECUN
EINVEFIN
ECIP
EINDETRD
EUC
EREL
ECA
ENERG
ENGY
ETRO
EFTA
ECONCS
ECONOMICS
ECONEFIN
EINVETC
EINN
ESA
ETC
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ESENV
ETRDECONWTOCS
IN
IC
IR
IZ
IS
IAEA
IT
ICTY
IO
IA
IWC
ID
ICRC
ILC
INTELSAT
IMO
ISRAELI
IACI
ILO
ITRA
IBRD
IMF
ICJ
ICAO
ITALY
ITALIAN
IRAQI
INTERPOL
IV
IQ
IPR
INRB
ITPHUM
IIP
IL
INR
ITPGOV
IZPREL
IRC
INRA
INRO
IRAJ
IEFIN
IF
KDEM
KCRM
KJUS
KTIA
KWBG
KPAL
KIPR
KTIP
KE
KNNP
KGHG
KICC
KV
KTFN
KU
KCFE
KDRG
KWMN
KSCA
KGIC
KCOR
KFRD
KPKO
KSUM
KPRP
KPAO
KBCT
KIRF
KCFC
KISL
KREC
KSPR
KHIV
KBIO
KMCA
KMPI
KFLU
KSTH
KBTR
KS
KOMC
KOMS
KSEP
KPRV
KFLO
KHLS
KN
KWWMN
KUNR
KLIG
KSTC
KZ
KG
KRAD
KOLY
KTBT
KTDB
KOCI
KAWK
KCIP
KNPP
KWAC
KMDR
KAWC
KIDE
KSAF
KX
KWMNCS
KNEI
KCRS
KVPR
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KACT
KO
KFSC
KR
KPWR
KMIG
KSEC
KIFR
KDEMAF
KFIN
KGCC
KPIN
KPLS
KIRC
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KGIT
KBTS
KERG
KWMM
KRVC
KNSD
KVIR
KNUP
KTER
KDDG
KHSA
KMRS
KHDP
KTLA
KPAK
KNAR
KREL
KPAI
KTEX
KCOM
KNNPMNUC
KPOA
KRFD
KHUM
KDEV
KNUC
MOPS
MARR
MASS
MNUC
MO
MX
MCAP
ML
MTCRE
MR
MP
MY
MU
MIL
MAR
MC
MRCRE
MTRE
MA
MEPI
MV
MPOS
MD
MZ
MEPP
MOPPS
MAPP
MASC
MT
MERCOSUR
MK
MDC
MI
MAPS
MCC
MASSMNUC
MQADHAFI
MUCN
MTCR
MG
OREP
OVIP
OFDP
ODIP
OPDC
OAS
OTRA
OSCE
OECD
OIIP
OEXC
OPCW
OPIC
OPRC
OVP
OSCI
OTR
OSAC
OIC
OFFICIALS
OIE
PHUM
PREL
PGOV
PREF
PTER
PARM
PBTS
PINR
PINS
PHSA
PK
POL
PM
PINT
PE
PINF
PEL
PA
PARMS
PO
PLN
PROP
PALESTINIAN
PAO
PL
POV
PG
POLITICS
PEPR
PSI
PSOE
PU
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PBIO
PECON
PAK
POGOV
PINL
PKFK
PMIL
PY
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PRAM
PMAR
PGOVLO
PUNE
PORG
PHUMPREL
PF
POLINT
PHUS
PGOC
PNR
PGGV
PNAT
PGOVE
PRGOV
PRL
PROV
PTERE
PGOF
PHUMBA
SENV
SY
SZ
SOCI
SO
SR
SNAR
SA
SP
SW
SMIG
SU
SCUL
SC
SAN
SN
SL
SG
SYR
SEVN
SF
SI
STEINBERG
SIPRS
SH
SNARCS
SOFA
SANC
SHUM
SK
ST
TRGY
TU
TBIO
TH
TS
TSPL
TT
TPHY
TSPA
TI
TK
TIP
TERRORISM
TZ
TX
TW
TD
TP
TC
TO
TNGD
TINT
TRSY
TR
TFIN
TURKEY
UK
UNGA
UN
UNHRC
UNMIK
UNO
UZ
UNSC
UP
UG
UNHCR
UNDC
US
UNAUS
USTR
UV
UNEP
UY
UNESCO
USUN
UAE
USEU
UNDP
UNCHS
UNVIE
UNCHC
UE
UNDESCO
USAID
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 08LONDON1939, A POLITICAL BODY BLOW TO GORDON BROWN AS LABOUR
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #08LONDON1939.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
08LONDON1939 | 2008-07-25 11:11 | 2011-02-04 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN | Embassy London |
VZCZCXRO6140
OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLO #1939/01 2071145
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 251145Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9287
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 001939
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SENSITIVE
EO 12958 DECL: 07/25/2018
TAGS PGOV, PREL, PINR, UK
SUBJECT: A POLITICAL BODY BLOW TO GORDON BROWN AS LABOUR
LOSES SCOTTISH BY-ELECTION
REF: LONDON 1913
Classified By: Political Counselor Rick Mills for reasons 1.4 (B) and ( D).
¶1. (C) Summary. The Scottish National Party’s 365 vote victory in yesterday’s Glasgow East by-election over Labour is another body blow to Gordon Brown’s political fortunes and, in the immediate aftermath, has fueled speculation that Brown could face a leadership challenge this fall, when MPs return to the Westminster Village from the summer break. A Labour MP and close advisor to Brown told us the morning after the vote that Brown will be “hunkering down” with his allies over the summer to fend off Labour party opponents, which Brown “can successfully do for now,” but the Glasgow result cannot be explained away as anything other than “a referendum on Labour” and Brown must react. This advisor said Brown has to use the summer vacation period, with MPs out of London, to develop a new political strategy. For now, in part because of the Parliamentary recess, a challenge to Brown’s leadership is not imminent, but the Glasgow defeat - the third Labour by-election loss since Brown took power -- might embolden his opponents to act in the fall if Brown cannot turn around Labour’s dismal political standing. End Summary.
A Political Earthquake
----------------------
¶2. (U) In what the winning Scottish National Party candidate called a “political earthquake,” Labour went down to an unanticipated defeat in yesterday’s Glasgow East by-election, coming in second to the SNP, 11,277 to 10,912. With a higher than expected voter turn out of 42 percent, SNP candidate John Mason’s victory over Labour’s Margaret Curran represents an astonishing 22 percent swing from the last general election in 2005, in what had been the Labour party’s 25th safest seat. The Conservatives came in third with 1,639, with the Liberal Democrats a distant fourth at 915 votes.
¶3. (C) Forsaking its traditional soapbox issue of Scottish independence, SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond personally spearheaded the party’s campaign, turning the by-election into a referendum on Brown and the Labour Party. Although Labour sent a collection of party heavyweights and Cabinet ministers to campaign for Curran, she could not overcome what appears to have been a lethal mix of Brown’s unpopularity, a strong SNP which benefited from Alex Salmond’s frequent appearances in the constituency, and voter frustration that the impoverished district has not benefited more from ten years of Labour rule in London. Labour’s attempts to market the by-election as a “local” -- in order to keep the focus off the Prime Minister -- went unnoticed. Nick Brown MP, a close advisor to Brown and his Deputy Labour Whip in the Commons, told Poloff the morning after the vote that “there are no quirks we can use to explain this defeat away” and the party has to see the vote as “a referendum on Labour -- that we lost.” For now, Labour party spokesmen sent out to speak publicly on the defeat, like DFID Secretary Douglas Alexander (a Scotsman himself), are repeating the now oft-heard Labor refrain that the party “will have to reflect long and hard on the results and try to understand the message” voters have sent.
The Winners
-----------
¶4. (C) The winner in yesterday’s election is clearly the SNP. The vote is an enormous boost for the party and its leader, Alex Salmond, who staked a considerable amount of personal prestige on the outcome -- visiting the district ten times during the campaign. The SNP presented the election as a chance to register a referendum on two governments - the SNP-led government in Hollyrood or the Labour government in Westminster, and the SNP can now claim victory. The party will have to be careful about not becoming too cocky, however, as the SNP’s signature issue, Scottish independence, was not highlighted during the campaign and most observers agree that, for most voters, their vote was more anti-Labour than a strong embrace of the SNP.
¶5. (C) The other winner the morning after are the Conservatives, despite their third place finish. The Conservatives are pleased to have done better than expected in this constituency. Conservative leader David Cameron had traveled to the district before the election and delivered a speech on the social causes of poverty and deprivation, stressing a need for personal responsibility rather than
LONDON 00001939 002 OF 002
government action. Many Conservatives thought making the speech in the district was a mistake, but it appears not to have harmed the Conservative vote. Michael Fabricant, a Tory MP, told Poloff that the third place finish is important to the Tories because it indicates that Cameron’s appeal and message is making inroads even in traditionally Tory-hostile Scotland. Cameron himself reacted to the vote by calling for the Prime Minister to hold an immediate general election, a call which the Prime Minister’s office termed ridiculous.
What’s Next for Gordon Brown?
----------------------------
¶6. (C) Nick Brown, Labour’s Deputy Chief Whip, told Poloff that Gordon Brown will use the summer months to “hunker down” and keep his party allies close and his party opponents “in line.” Nick Brown, who is one of the Prime Minster’s closest political advisors, said that as “terrible” as the election outcome was, it would not spark an immediate leadership challenge to the Prime Minister within the Labour Party. The Prime Minister, however, has to use the summer parliamentary recess, now underway, to develop a new political message and consider a cabinet shakeup in order to stop his political freefall. Nick Brown reported that there are “unconfirmed rumors” of a small number of Labour party members considering whether to gather signatures for a letter to the Prime Minister asking that he step down -- supposedly the plotters intend to present the letter on September 5 to the Prime Minister, the date in 2006 on which Labour party rebels presented a similar letter to then Prime Minister Tony Blair -- but Nick Brown said the Prime Minister and his allies would be able “to slap down” the effort, “if it got off the ground at all.”
¶7. (C) Nick Brown acknowledged that many Labour members were hoping that an election victory in the Glasgow by-election, no matter how narrow, would “cauterize” Labour’s political wounds, but with Labour’s loss, many Labour members will be panicked that the party’s political decline has not yet bottomed out and willing to consider “drastic action.” As Deputy Whip, Nick Brown will be speaking to many MPs over the weekend to “keep their heads about them.” Ultimately, Nick Brown claimed, a leadership challenge to the Prime Minister is “highly unlikely” for the practical reason that, were the Labour party to change its leader and give the UK a third Prime Minister in three or four years, it would be politically impossible for the party not to call a general election shortly afterwards -- it would be “historically unheard of to have two unelected Prime Ministers back to back.” Labour MPs understand, Brown continued, that they would still go down to defeat in such a case so many will be willing to stick with the Prime Minister in the hope he can turn the party’s fortunes around before spring 2010, when a general election must be called.
Comment
-------
¶8. (C/NF) With Parliament on recess on until October 6, Labour will have time for “long and hard” reflection. Attention now turns to the September party conventions, where Labour, and possibly more importantly Brown, will have another (and possibly final) opportunity to convince voters that Labour has “listened and learned.” However, unless Brown takes dramatic action, whether a leadership shuffle or new bold policy direction, he may not be able to fend off grumbles from an increasingly anxious party and, though still unlikely, a possible challenge to his position as party leader.
Visit London’s Classified Website: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Unit ed_Kingdom
TUTTLE